Q Good afternoon, gentlemen. This is a far-reaching Bill. We have heard from the Government and from other witnesses that there is potentially a £5 billion cost to the economy associated with it. Others have suggested that that might even be a small c conservative estimate. From the perspective of your business interests, what is the likely impact of this Bill on the bottom line economically, as well as to overall job numbers in the economy?
Luke Johnson: I think you need to put it in context. From my various decades of creating businesses and jobs, I would say that we now have among the highest ever levels of tax burden and of overall regulation and legislation, and that this is a high-cost country. Job vacancies have been falling for at least 15 months. Unemployment is going up. Interest rates are massively higher than they used to be. Insolvency specialists tell me that they are rubbing their hands because they think that next year will be very busy. I would say that even if we do not suffer a technical recession next year, it is odds-on that there will be a serious slowdown. I am at the cutting edge of businesses, and, in some cases, some of my companies might not survive next year. I do not know how many Committee members have ever been involved in starting and growing a company and keeping it from failing, but it is not much fun.
The idea that now is a good moment for small and medium-sized businesses—which, let’s face it, are the future; they are the ones that disproportionately innovate and, actually, disproportionately create most of the jobs. They are the ones that are the next big businesses; every business started as a small business once. On the idea that companies that can barely afford any form of HR could stomach a big new Bill of 150 pages and 28 measures, they will not even have time to read it. The idea that they can adopt something like this when they are facing quite possibly—we have to remember that they have the hangover of two years when so many of them were shut. They have legacy debts and energy prices. Electricity prices in this country are the highest of any developed nation. Try manufacturing things here now. The timing of this is beyond belief, and that needs to be put into context. Whether £5 billion is the real cost or not, it is death by 1,000 cuts because you never know until you get a big tribunal what the real cost is, for example.
Michael Lorimer: I agree. Obviously, a Bill like this does not exist in splendid isolation if you are running a business. Luke has identified the increased costs of doing business, which are severe and impact small to medium-sized enterprises most, which, as you will be aware, represent 80% of the employment in this country. There was the news yesterday about the White Paper, “Get Britain Working”, and as a top line, I am very supportive of that. I think that is absolutely brilliant. Getting 2.8 million people back into work is something I am very passionate about. In Banbury, we are beside an area of deprivation, with a lot of people on benefits, and a lot of young people who are feeling quite depressed about life. We would love to be offering those people jobs—I cannot emphasise that enough. For six months of the year we have temporary staff coming in, and we are very glad they come—they come from different countries, work very hard and do great work for us.
My concern, without being able to give you a number on it, is that for some of the riskier hires that might come from the areas around where our business is based—in other words, people not in education, employment or training, kids who have not worked before, or people who have been unemployed for a long time; you hear on the radio every day that people in their 50s cannot get a job—businesses will be very slow to take a risk because of the day one legislation that is coming down the track. We have an HR department, so we can deal with this to some extent, but as you slide down the road and find businesses that employ maybe less than 20 or 10 people, there will be deep concerns and perceptions that this is just too expensive and scary.
I was hugely encouraged by the White Paper—I think the top-line aspirations are absolutely the right ones. It is the same direction of travel, towards 2 million jobs, that the Jobs Foundation have published a report on this week, and that the Centre for Social Justice are focused on. I would exhort all of you politicians, regardless of your colour, to get behind the concept of getting Britain working. But my fear is that this torpedoes a lot of those plans—genuinely, that is my fear.