I thank the Minister for her introduction and the spirit in which she delivered it. I agree that this is a classic example of co-operation between the UK Government and the Scottish Government. It is part of the continuing transition of social security delivery from the DWP to Social Security Scotland, which is all to be welcomed, given that it allows differences to be respected. However, it also means that there can be conflicts or contradictions, and the Minister has indicated—as is always the case with DWP benefits—the difficulties of not claiming one benefit because you are entitled to another, or vice versa. That is understood and explained.
It was good, although slightly pressured, for a Scottish Minister to say that the delivery of social security is a joint enterprise between the two Governments. It takes something to get that out of a Scottish Minister these days, partly because there are hiccups in the process that mean that blame needs to be apportioned occasionally. So I take that at face value, but I am glad it was said, because it is actually true.
I have one or two questions. First, on the basis of the transfer of benefits from, effectively, the DWP to Social Security Scotland, the allocation to the Scottish block grant is based on forecasts. Given that those are forecasts, what is the potential for either an underspend or an overspend? If that happens accidentally rather than deliberately, what is the scope for a review either way? In other words, if the Scottish Government find that they are overspent for legitimate reasons, will the UK Government compensate, but if they underspend for similar reasons, will the UK Government adjust it accordingly? As I understand it, the forecast, or the block grant adjustment, is based on the estimate of the saving that the UK Government have made in the process of transferring the benefit to the Scottish Government—it can only be an estimate, because the take-up will follow.
The other problem is really a political one. The Scottish Government did not have social security powers 25 years ago, although they campaigned strongly for them and the Smith review recommended them. However, there is a problem of politics, because what is actually happening is that most of these benefits were originally UK, they are transferred in similar format to the Scottish Government and funded accordingly into the block grant. The Scottish Government can then, if they wish, cut them or top them up from their own resource. For example, the Scottish child benefit is £26.70 per child, on top only of UK-funded tax credit—that is, it is only those in receipt of tax credit who qualify for it, which is fair enough. However, the impression given by politicians north of the border is that the combination of the tax credit and the £26.70 has all been delivered by the Scottish Government, so there is a lack of transparency about who is paying for what.
That is important because the people of Scotland need to know what the Scottish Government are genuinely doing on their own merit and what the UK Government are doing for the people of Scotland out of central UK resources. For those of us who, as in my case, are federalists, home rulers and believers in devolution, it is nevertheless important that we understand that Scotland has two Governments and both are contributing to the benefit of the people of Scotland. We need to know which Government provide what benefit, and the presentation in Scotland does not always reflect that.
This raises a final concern. I am not sure whether the Minister can say anything about it, but we will have an election in Scotland in the next 18 months and I worry that these powers could be misused. It might suit a Government—particularly one who feel that they are on the back foot—to introduce a whole load of social security sweeties, knowing that the bill will come after the election. There is nothing to stop that happening other than, possibly, the UK Government pointing it out, but it is entirely within the discretion of the Scottish Government.
I accept entirely the spirit in which the Minister presented the order and I support the principle of what is going on. Nevertheless, I ask her to acknowledge that there is a political tension here that could lead to abuse. That is not a reason for reversing it but may be a reason for doing what I have just done, which is to highlight the fact that the two Governments are doing complementary but different things.