Public Spending: Inheritance

Statement

The following Statement was made in the House of Commons on Monday 29 July.

“On my first day as Chancellor of the Exchequer, I asked Treasury officials to assess the state of public spending. That work is now complete and I am today presenting it to this House. In this Statement, I will do three things. First, I will expose the scale—and the seriousness—of what has been uncovered; secondly, I will lay out the immediate action that we are taking to deal with the inheritance; and thirdly, I will set out our longer-term plans to fix the foundations of our economy. Let me take each of these points in turn.

First, I turn to the inheritance. Before the election, I said that we would face the worst inheritance since the Second World War: taxes at a 70-year high, debt through the roof, and an economy only just coming out of recession. I knew all of those things, and during the campaign, I was honest about them and about the difficult choices that they meant. The British people knew them too. That is why they voted for change. But upon my arrival at the Treasury three weeks ago, it became clear that there were things that I did not know. There were things that the Conservative Party covered up—covered up from the Opposition, from this House and from the country. That is why today we are publishing a detailed audit of the real spending situation, a copy of which will be laid in the House of Commons Library. I take this opportunity to thank the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, my right honourable friend the Member for Bristol North West (Darren Jones), for his leadership, and Treasury officials for all their work in producing this document.

Let me now explain what that document has uncovered. The previous Government published their plans for day-to-day spending in the Spring Budget in March, but when I arrived at the Treasury, I was alerted by officials on the very first day that that was not how much the Government had expected to spend this year. It was not even close; in fact, the total pressure on those budgets across a range of areas was an additional £35 billion. Once we account for the slippage in budgets that we usually see over a year and the reserve of £9 billion designed to respond to genuinely unexpected events, that means that we have inherited a projected overspend of £22 billion. That is a £22 billion hole in the public finances now—not in the future, but now. It is £22 billion of spending this year that was covered up by the Conservative Party. If left unaddressed, it would mean a 25% increase in the budget deficit this year, so today I will set out the necessary and urgent work that I have already done to reduce that pressure on the public finances by £5.5 billion this year and over £8 billion next year.

Let me be clear: I am not talking about costs for future years that the previous Government signed up to but did not include, like the compensation for infected blood, which has cross-party support. I am not talking about the state of public services in the future, like the crisis in our prisons that they have left for us to fix. I am talking about the money that the previous Government were already spending this year and had no ability to pay for, which they hid from the country. They had exhausted the reserve and they knew that, but nobody else did. They ducked the difficult decisions, put party before country, and continued to make unfunded commitment after unfunded commitment, knowing that the money was not there. That has resulted in the position that we have now inherited: the reserve was spent more than three times over only three months into the financial year, and the previous Government told no one.

The scale of this overspend is not sustainable, and to not act is simply not an option. This month, we have seen official Office for National Statistics figures showing that borrowing is higher this year than the Office for Budget Responsibility expected, and the disaster of Liz Truss’s mini-Budget shows what happens if we do not take tough decisions to maintain economic stability. Some, including the Leader of the Opposition and the shadow Chancellor, the right honourable Member for Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt), have claimed that the books were open. How dare they? It is not true, and I will tell the House why: there are very clear instances of specific budgets that were overspent and unfunded promises that were made but that—crucially—the OBR was not aware of for its March forecast. I will take each in turn.

The first is the asylum system. The forecast for the number of asylum seekers has risen dramatically since the last spending review, and costs for asylum support have risen sevenfold in the past three years, but instead of reflecting those costs in the Home Office budget for this year, the previous Government covered up the true extent of the crisis and its spending implications. The document I am publishing today reveals a projected overspend on the asylum system, including the previous Government’s failed Rwanda plan, of more than £6.4 billion for this year alone. That figure was unfunded and undisclosed.

Next, in the wake of the pandemic, demand for rail services fell. Instead of developing a proper plan to adjust to that new reality, the Government handed out cash to rail companies to make up for passenger short- falls, but failed to budget for this adequately. Because of that, and because of industrial action, there is now an overspend of £1.6 billion in the transport budget. That was unfunded and undisclosed.

Since 2022, the Government, with the support of the whole House, have rightly provided military assistance to Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion. The spending audit found that there was not enough money set aside in the reserve to fund all these costs. We will continue to honour these commitments in full, and unlike the previous Government, we will make sure that they are always fully funded.

On top of these new pressures, since 2021 inflation was above the Bank of England’s target for 33 months in a row—hitting 11% at its peak—but the previous Government had not held a spending review since 2021, which means that they never fully reflected the impact of inflation in departmental budgets. That had a direct impact on budgets for public sector pay.

When the last spending review was conducted, it was assumed that pay awards would be 2% this year. Ordinarily, the Government are expected to give evidence to the pay review bodies on affordability, but extraordinarily, this year the previous Government provided no guidance on what could or could not be afforded to the pay review bodies. That is almost unheard of, but that is exactly what they did. Worse still, the former Education Secretary had the pay review body recommendations sitting on her desk. Instead of responding and dealing with the consequences, the Government shirked the decisions that needed to be taken.

I will not repeat the previous Government’s mistakes. Where they provided no transparency to the public, and no certainty for public services, we will be open about the decisions that are needed and the steps that we are taking. That begins with accepting in full the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies. The details of these awards are being published today. That is the right decision for the people who work in, and most importantly the people who use, our public services. It gives hard-working staff the pay rises they deserve while ensuring that we can recruit and retain the people we need.

It should not have taken this long to come to these decisions and I do not want us to be in this position again, so I will consider options to reform the timetable for responding to the pay review bodies in the future. This decision is in the best interests of our economy too: the last Government presided over the worst set of strikes in a generation, which caused chaos and misery for the British public and wreaked havoc on the public finances. Industrial action in the NHS alone cost the taxpayer £1.7 billion last year. That is why I am pleased to announce today that the Government have agreed an offer to the junior doctors that the British Medical Association is recommending to its members.

My right honourable friend the Health Secretary will set out further details. Let me pay tribute to him: his leadership on the issue has paved the way to ending a dispute that has caused waiting lists to spiral, operations to be delayed and agony for patients to be prolonged. Today marks the start of a new relationship between the Government and staff working in our National Health Service, and the whole country will welcome that.

Where the previous Government ducked the difficult decisions, I am taking action. Knowing what they did about the state of the public finances, they continued to make unfunded commitment after unfunded commitment that they knew they could not afford, putting party before country and leaving us with an overspend of £22 billion this year. Where they presided over recklessness, I will bring responsibility. I will take immediate action. Let me set it out in detail.

On pay, I have today set out our decision to meet the recommendations of the pay review bodies. Because the previous Government failed to prepare for these recommendations in the departmental budgets, they come at an additional cost of £9 billion this year. The first difficult choice I am making is to ask all departments to find savings to absorb as much of this as possible, totalling at least £3 billion. To support departments as they do this, I will work with them to find savings ahead of the Autumn Budget, including through measures to stop all non-essential spending on consultancy and Government communications. I am also taking action to ask departments to find 2% savings in their back-office costs.

I will now deal with a series of commitments made by the previous Government that they did not fund, because if we cannot afford it, we cannot do it. First, at the Conservative Party conference last year, the former Prime Minister announced the introduction of a new qualification: the advanced British standard. That is a commitment costing nearly £200 million next year, rising to billions across future years. This was supposed to be the former Prime Minister’s legacy, but it turns out that he did not put aside a single penny to pay for it. So we will not go ahead with that policy, because if we cannot afford it, we cannot do it.

Next, the Illegal Migration Act 2023, passed by the previous Government, made it impossible to process asylum applications or remove people who have no right to be here. Instead, they relied on a doomed policy to send asylum seekers to Rwanda on planes that never took off, leaving tens of thousands of people stuck in hotels on the public purse. We need a properly controlled and managed asylum system where rules are enforced, so that those with no right to be here are swiftly removed. So we have scrapped their failed Rwanda scheme, which placed huge pressure on the Home Office budget. To bring down these costs as soon as possible, my right honourable friend the Home Secretary has already laid legislation to remove the retrospective element of the Illegal Migration Act, which will significantly reduce the use of hotel accommodation. These measures will save nearly £800 million this year and avoid costs spiralling even further next year. This was a bad use of taxpayers’ money, and we will not do it.

The previous Government claimed they were levelling up the country. They made promise after promise to the British people, but the spending audit has uncovered that some of those commitments were not worth the paper that they were written on. At Autumn Statement last year, the former Chancellor announced £150 million for an investment opportunity fund, but not a single project has been supported from that fund. So following discussions with my right honourable friend the Deputy Prime Minister, I am cancelling it today, because if we cannot afford it, we cannot do it.

The previous Government also made a series of commitments on transport, promises that people expected to be delivered and promises that many Members across this House campaigned on in good faith, but the Conservative Party has failed them. We have seen from the National Audit Office the chaos that the previous Government presided over, with projects over budget and delayed again and again. The spending audit has revealed £1 billion of unfunded transport projects that have been committed to next year, so my right honourable friend the Transport Secretary will undertake a thorough review of these commitments. As part of that work, she has agreed not to move forwards with projects that the previous Government refused to publicly cancel, despite knowing full well that they were unaffordable. That includes proposed work on the A303 and the A27, and my right honourable friend will also cancel the restoring your railway programme, saving £85 million next year, with individual projects to be assessed through her review. If we cannot afford it, we cannot do it.

The previous Government had plans for a retail sale of NatWest shares. We intend to fully exit our shareholding in NatWest by 2025-26. But having considered advice, I have concluded that a retail share sale offer would involve significant discounts that could cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of pounds. It would therefore not represent value for money, and it will not go ahead. It is a bad use of taxpayers’ money, and we will not do it.

Next, let me address the unfunded pressures in our NHS and our social care sector. In October 2020, the Government announced that 40 new hospitals would be built by 2030. Since then, only one new project has opened to patients, and only six have started their main construction activity. The National Audit Office was clear that delivery was wildly off track, but since coming into office, it has become clear that the previous Government continued to maintain their commitment to 40 hospitals without anywhere close to the funding required to deliver them. That gave our constituents false hope. We need to be straight with the British people about what is deliverable and what is affordable, so we will conduct a complete review of the new hospital programme, with a thorough, realistic and costed timetable for delivery.

Adult social care was also neglected by the previous Government. The sector needs reform to improve care and to support staff. In the previous Parliament, the Government made costly commitments to introduce adult social care charging reforms, but they delayed them two years ago because they knew that local authorities were not ready and that their promises were not funded, so it will not be possible to take forward those charging reforms. This will save over £1 billion by the end of next year.

I can understand why people, and Members, are angry. I am angry too. The previous Government let people down. The previous Government made commitment after commitment without knowing where the money was going to come from. They did this repeatedly, knowingly and deliberately.

Today, I am calling out the Conservatives’ cover-up and I am taking the first steps to clean up what they have left behind, but the scale of the inheritance we have been left means that the decisions we have so far announced will not be enough. This level of overspend is not sustainable. Left unchecked, it is a risk to economic stability—and unlike the Conservative party, I will never take risks with our country’s economic stability. It therefore falls to us to take the difficult decisions now to make further in-year savings.

The scale of the situation we are dealing with means incredibly tough choices. I repeat today the commitment that we made in our manifesto to protect the triple lock, but today I am making the difficult decision that those not in receipt of pension credit or certain other means-tested benefits will no longer receive the winter fuel payment, from this year onwards. The Government will continue to provide winter fuel payments worth £200 to households receiving pension credit or £300 to households in receipt of pension credit with someone over the age of 80. Let me be clear: this is not a decision I wanted to make, nor is it the one that I expected to make, but these are the necessary and urgent decisions that I must make. It is the responsible thing to do to fix the foundations of our economy and bring back economic stability.

Alongside this change, I will work with my right honourable friend the Work and Pensions Secretary to maximise the take-up of pension credit by bringing forward the administration of housing benefit and pension credit, repeatedly pushed back by the previous Government, and by working with older people’s charities and local authorities to raise awareness of pension credit and help identify households not claiming it.

This is the beginning of a process, not the end. I am announcing today that I will hold a Budget on 30 October, alongside a full economic and fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility. I have to tell the House that the Budget will involve taking difficult decisions to meet our fiscal rules across spending, welfare and tax. Mr Speaker, they still don’t get it, do they? Parties in Downing Street, crashing the economy, gambling on the election—party before country, every single time.

It will be a Budget to fix the foundations of our economy, and it will be a Budget built on the principles that this new Government were elected on. First, we will treat taxpayers’ money with respect by ensuring that every pound is well spent, and we will interrogate every line of public spending to ensure that it represents value for money. Secondly, I can repeat from the Dispatch Box our manifesto commitment that we will not increase taxes on working people. That means that we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, or VAT. Today, my honourable friend the Exchequer Secretary is publishing further detail on our manifesto commitments to close tax loopholes and clamp down on tax avoidance to ensure that we bring in that money as quickly as possible. My third principle is that we will meet our fiscal rules: we will move the current budget into balance and we will get debt falling as a share of the economy by the end of the forecast.

These are the principles that will guide me at the Budget, but let me be honest: challenging trade-offs will remain, so today I am launching a multiyear spending review. This review will set departmental budgets for at least three years, providing the long-term certainty that has been lacking for too long. As part of that process, final budgets for this year and budgets for next year, 2025-26, will be set alongside the Budget on 30 October.

I will look closely at our welfare system, because if someone can work, they should work. That is a principle of this Government, yet under the previous Government, welfare spending ballooned, while inactivity has risen sharply in recent years. We will ensure that the welfare system is focused on supporting people into employment, and we will assess the unacceptable levels of fraud and error in our welfare system and take forward action to bring that down.

To fix the foundations of our economy, we must ensure that never again can a Government keep from the public the true state of our public finances. The fiscal framework I have inherited had several flaws. It allowed the Government to run down the clock on departmental budgets to avoid difficult decisions and to push them back beyond the election, so I am announcing the most significant set of changes to our framework since the inception of the Office for Budget Responsibility. These changes will come into effect in the autumn.

First, we have introduced legislation to ensure that we can never again see a repeat of the mini-Budget. Secondly, we will require the Treasury to share with the Office for Budget Responsibility its assessment of immediate public spending pressures, and we will enshrine that rule in the charter for budget responsibility, so that no Government can ever again cover up the true state of our public finances. Finally, we will ensure that never again do public service budgets get set at only a few months’ notice. Instead, spending reviews will take place every two years, with a minimum planning horizon of three years, to avoid uncertainty for departments and to boost stability for our public finances. I have already spoken to the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility to brief him on the findings of our audit and our reforms.

By launching the spending review, I am also today starting the firing gun on a new approach to public service reform to drive greater productivity in the public sector. We will embed an approach to government that is mission-led, that is reform-driven, with a greater focus on prevention and the integration of services at a national and local level, and that is enabled by new technology, including through the work of my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology on the opportunities of artificial intelligence to improve our public services. We will establish a new office of value for money, with an immediate focus on identifying areas where we can reduce or stop spending, or improve its value.

We will appoint a Covid corruption commissioner to bring back money that is owed to taxpayers after contracts worth billions of pounds were handed out by the previous Government during the pandemic. Ahead of the spending review, I will also review the cost of our political system, including restricting eligibility for ministerial severance payments based on time in office. I expect all levels of government to be run effectively and efficiently, and I will work with leaders across our country to deliver just that. That means effective local government, a Civil Service delivering good value for the British taxpayer and reform of our political institutions, including the House of Lords, to keep costs as low as possible.

The Budget and spending review will also set out further progress on our No. 1 mission: to grow our economy. Economic growth is the only way to sustainably improve our public services and our public finances, so we will use the spending review to prioritise specific areas of capital investment that leverage in billions more in private investment. It will not happen overnight—it will take time and it will take focus—but we have already made significant progress, including: planning reforms to get Britain building; a national wealth fund to catalyse private investment; a pensions investment review to unlock capital for our businesses; Skills England to create a shared national ambition to boost skills across our country; and work across government on a new industrial strategy, driven forward by a growth mission board, to ensure that we deliver on our commitments.

Our country has fundamental strengths on which we can build, and I look forward to welcoming business leaders to the international investment summit in Britain later this year. I know that if we can create the stable conditions that investors need to thrive, we will return confidence to our economy so that entrepreneurs and businesses big and small know that this is the best place in the world to start and grow a business. That is the bedrock on which economic growth must be built.

The inheritance from the previous Government is unforgiveable. After the chaos of partygate, when they knew that trust in politics was at an all-time low, they gave false hope to Britain. When people were already being hurt by their cost of living crisis, they promised solutions that they knew could never be paid for, roads that would never be built, public transport that would never arrive and hospitals that would never treat a single patient. They spent like there was no tomorrow because they knew that someone else would pick up the bill. Then, in the election—perhaps this is the most shocking part—they campaigned on a platform to do it all over again, with more unfunded tax cuts and more spending pledges, all the time knowing that they had no ability to pay for them. No regard for the taxpayer. No respect for ordinary, hard-working people.

I will never do that. I will restore our country’s economic stability. I will make the tough choices. I will fix the foundations of our economy so that we can rebuild Britain and make every part of our country better off. I commend this Statement to the House.”

12:38:00

My Lords, I take this opportunity to welcome the Minister to his role. I am sure he will bring the same intellect and consideration to the Government Benches as he did in opposition. My right honourable friend the shadow Chancellor set out clearly yesterday why the Statement we are debating today is nothing more than a political ploy by the Government to lay the ground for tax rises that Labour was not honest about during the election. He asked the Chancellor several important questions and I listened very carefully to her failure to answer them. So it is welcome that the Minister is here today to give things another go. First, will the Minister confirm to the House that, since January, in line with constitutional convention, the Chancellor had meetings with the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury? Will the Minister tell the House whether they discussed the public finances, including any of the pressures included in yesterday’s Statement? If so, why are we hearing about the response to those only after the election, during which the Government promised no new tax rises? Secondly, we are just three months into the financial year. Can the Minister confirm that, at the start of the year, the Treasury had a reserve of £14 billion for unexpected revenue costs and £4 billion for unexpected capital costs? Can he explain why yesterday’s Statement did not account for the Treasury’s ability to manage down in-year pressures on the reserve by £9 billion last year alone? Why did it apparently not account for underspends typically of £12 billion a year? Will the Minister further confirm whether the Government have abandoned the £12 billion of welfare savings planned by the last Government? That is apart from yesterday’s announcement of a cut to the winter fuel allowance. The Chancellor yesterday admitted she was well aware that take-up of pension credit was woefully low; therefore, can the Minister tell this House how many pensioners living in poverty will now have their winter fuel allowance taken away from them? Can the Minister also confirm whether the Chancellor has abandoned £20 billion of annual productivity savings planned by the last Government, and if not, why they were not in the numbers published yesterday? Thirdly and importantly, just five days ago the Chancellor presented to Parliament the Government’s estimates for their spending plans this year. Yesterday, my right honourable friend the shadow Chancellor wrote to the Cabinet Secretary with questions on the difference between the figures the Chancellor asked MPs to approve last week and the document she presented yesterday. Perhaps the Minister can speed up the process by answering them today? Can the Minister confirm that senior civil servants signed off on the main estimates and that they were presented in good faith? Can he explain why is there a difference between the plans signed off by senior civil servants in estimates and plans presented yesterday by the Chancellor? If the estimates are wrong, will accounting officers be sanctioned for signing off departmental spending plans for this year which are based on a forecast of requirements that is incorrect? The Government have also not been straight about their economic inheritance. When BBC Verify asked a professor at the London School of Economics about the claim that Labour had inherited, “the worst set of economic circumstances” since the Second World War, he responded: “I struggle to find a metric that would make that statement correct”. In fact, the metrics speak for themselves: inflation is 2% today—nearly half what it was in 2010; unemployment is nearly half what it was then, with more new jobs than nearly anywhere else in Europe. So far this year, we are the fastest-growing G7 economy, and over the next six years the IMF says we will grow faster than France, Italy, Germany and Japan. In addition, the forecast deficit today is 4.4%, compared to 10.3% when Labour was last in office. Every Chancellor faces pressures on public finances, and after a pandemic and an energy crisis those pressures are particularly challenging. That is why, in autumn 2022, the previous Government took painful but necessary decisions on tax and spend. We knew that, if we continued to take difficult decisions on pay, productivity and welfare reform, we could live within our means and start to bring taxes down. On the other hand, Labour ran a campaign knowing that, in government, it would duck those difficult decisions. In just 24 days, the Government have announced £7.3 billion for GB Energy, £8.3 billion for the national wealth fund and around £10 billion for public sector pay awards. That is £24 billion in 24 days—£1 billion for every day the Chancellor has been in office—leaving taxpayers to pick up the tab. Will the Minister confirm that around half of yesterday’s supposed black hole comes from discretionary public sector pay awards—in other words, not something that the Government have to do, but something on which they have a choice? In accepting those recommendations, was the Chancellor advised by officials to ask unions for productivity enhancements before accepting above-inflation pay awards to help to pay for those awards, as the last Government did? If she was advised to do that, why did she reject that advice? Can the Minister reassure the House on another promise the Chancellor made, on her fiscal rules? Can he confirm that, in order to pay for the Government’s public sector spending plans, the Chancellor will not change her fiscal rules to target a different debt measure so that she can increase borrowing and debt by the back door? The difference between yesterday’s Statement and 2010 is that, when the Conservatives came to office, we were honest about our plans, saying straightforwardly that we would need to cut the deficit. The party opposite has just won an election promising over 50 times that it has no plans to raise taxes. Yesterday was simply a political exercise to lay the ground for breaking that promise.

My Lords, in the debate on the economy following the King’s Speech, I particularly noticed the speeches made by the noble Baronesses, Lady Noakes and Lady Vere, and the noble Lord, Lord Bridges, in which they lauded the state of the economy that the Conservatives were handing over. I welcome the noble Baroness, Lady Penn, back to her place on the Conservative Front Bench, but I have just heard a repeat of exactly the same. I find myself thinking today, as I thought back then, how out of touch can the Conservative Party be? Ordinary folk are seriously struggling with the cost of living; businesses are short of workforce and facing costs and barriers to trade with Europe, our major market; productivity and business investment are both stagnant; public debt and taxes are at record highs; and public services are in as dire a crisis as I can ever remember. My party recognises that the new Government face a huge challenge to deliver both fiscal stability and economic growth, but like my colleagues in the Commons, I ask the Government whether they will give significant priority to the NHS and social care. The two are totally intertwined. It is not just a case of humanity; thousands of people who are trapped in ill health or overwhelmed by caring responsibilities are the potential workforce who could change our economy. I was very sad to hear of a further delay in the introduction of the Dilnot cap, but, frankly, I never had any confidence that a Conservative Government, had they followed the election, would ever have implemented it. However, that nettle has got to be grasped, and I very much hope we will soon hear that there is at least going to be a royal commission to get some final answers to what is an absolutely fundamental ulcer in the health of our overall economy and civil society. During the election, my party pointed out that there are potential sources of funding: restoring the levy on the big banks, a windfall tax on oil and gas giants without huge loopholes and a fair tax on the online and tech giants are simple examples. There are ways to look at the broader shoulders in order to meet some of those funding gaps. Moreover, infrastructure cannot be neglected. I ask the Government, even if a particular transport or green project—I give those as examples—cannot lever in private funds directly, but on the other hand has the potential to release new opportunity that follows on from private investment, and which will drive economic renewal, will those projects be on the priority list as we move forward? Furthermore, a long-term, reliable industrial strategy is essential, and I very much welcome it. I also welcome and very much approve of plans for new transparency and accountability in the numbers and forecasts provided to give us a sense of the health and state of the public finances. In closing, I repeat: will the NHS and social care be very high on the list of choices the Government will have to make? They are essential to the future of both the UK economy and the structures of civil society.

My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baronesses, Lady Penn and Lady Kramer, for their comments and questions. I thank the noble Baroness, Lady Penn, for her kind words and I welcome her to her place. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, asked a number of questions about the decisions we have taken to deal with the public spending inheritance, and she spoke in positive terms about the economic inheritance this Government face. The fact is that the previous Government left the worst inheritance since the Second World War: public services at breaking point, sewage in our rivers, our schools literally crumbling, taxes at a 70-year high, national debt through the roof, and an economy barely out of recession. The British people know that to be true; that is why they voted for change, and it now falls to this Government to clean up the mess left behind. The scale of that mess inherited from the previous Government is serious. The Treasury’s detailed audit of the spending situation published yesterday uncovered a projected overspend of £22 billion this year. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, repeated the claim that all that information was known; let us be very clear that that is not true. In her Statement, the Chancellor set out very specific instances of budgets that were overspent and unfunded promises that were made that, crucially, the OBR was not aware of when producing its March forecast. The director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies said of the previous Government’s spending commitments that they “genuinely appear” to have been unfunded. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, is very experienced in these matters and fully knows the rules that govern access talks prior to an election. In a letter to the Treasury Select Committee, the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility confirmed that the OBR was made aware of these spending pressures only last week. He also says that this overspend “would constitute one of the largest … overspends … outside of the pandemic years”. He has initiated a review into the information provided to the OBR ahead of the spring Budget. However, one group of people did know the true scale of what has been uncovered: the previous Government, and they covered it up. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, mentioned the reserve; the previous Government had exhausted that reserve and spent more than three times over, only three months into the financial year, and yet continued to make unfunded commitment after unfunded commitment, which they knew they could not afford, knowing that the money was not there—and they told no one. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, also criticised some of the decisions that we are now taking to clean up the mess that they left behind, including on pay, where the previous Government failed to give any guidance on affordability, to hold a spending review, or to deal with or account for the consequences. Her comments simply remind us that, when they were in Government, they repeatedly ducked the difficult decisions. This is why we have been left with an overspend of £22 billion this year. The scale of that overspend is not sustainable. Not to act is not an option. If left unaddressed, it would have meant a 25% increase in the Government’s financing needs this year, so the Chancellor rightly set out immediate action to reduce pressure on public finances by £5.5 billion this year and by over £8 billion next year. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, also asked about the main estimates. Page 7 of the spending audit document that the Treasury published yesterday sets out the position clearly. It reads as follows: “The government laid Main Estimates for 2024-25 before Parliament on 18 July, the earliest available opportunity after the General Election and considerably later than the usual timetable. These Estimates were prepared before the General Election, and the government was forced to lay them unchanged in order to allow them to be voted on before the summer recess. This was necessary to avoid departments experiencing cash shortages over the summer. The pressures set out in this document represent a more realistic assessment of DEL spending. As usual, departmental spending limits will be finalised at Supplementary Estimates”. The noble Baroness, Lady Penn, raised the difficult decision that those not in receipt of pension credit will no longer receive the winter fuel payment from this year onwards. That was not an easy decision, but the difficult reality we must face is that the previous Government repeatedly, knowingly and deliberately made commitment after commitment, without ever knowing where the money would come from. The level of the resulting overspend is not sustainable. Left unchecked, it would be a risk to economic stability, so it falls to this Government to take the difficult decisions to make the necessary in-year savings. That means incredibly tough choices; these are not decisions that we want to take or expected to take but necessary and urgent decisions that we must take. These difficult decisions are the beginning of a process, not the end. There will be a Budget on 30 October. That will involve taking difficult decisions to meet our fiscal rules across spending, welfare and tax. Because challenging trade-offs will remain, the Chancellor also announced a multiyear spending review, which will set out departmental budgets for the next three years. To answer the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, that spending review will prioritise our manifesto commitments on public services, as well as investment for growth. The inheritance from the previous Government is unforgivable. After the chaos of partygate, when they knew that trust in politics was at an all-time low, they gave false hope to Britain. When people are already being hurt by their cost of living crisis, they promised solutions that they knew could never be paid for. Then in the election—this is perhaps the most shocking part—they campaigned to do it all over again: more unfunded tax cuts and more spending pledges, all the time knowing that they had no ability to pay for them, no regard for the taxpayer and no respect for working people. This can never happen again. We will take the tough decisions to restore economic stability and to fix the foundations of our economy.

12:54:00

My Lords, I want to follow up on my noble friend’s comments on the NHS and social care. All of us who were observing the hospital programme could see that it was foundering, costing money and not progressing, so yesterday’s announcement on its future was not surprising. However, the need for new NHS facilities and to upgrade and shore up the NHS estate remains. Communities may well have been sold a pup by the Conservatives, but their needs remain. What are the Government’s plans to pick up and deal with the legacy of a crumbling NHS estate?

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his support for the announcements on the hospital building programme yesterday. As he knows, those plans were completely unfunded, behind schedule and overbudget. It is right that we have a full review of them. As I said to the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, the coming spending review will prioritise the manifesto commitments that we made on public services, including the NHS. We will take forward our commitment to reform adult social care, as he mentioned, and will work towards building a consensus for the reforms needed to build a national care service.

My Lords, I thank my noble friend the Minister for his Statement. Noble Lords will remember that, in 2010, when Conservative Chancellor George Osborne set up the Office for Budget Responsibility, he said: “That means there will be nowhere to hide the debts, no way to fiddle the figures, and no way of avoiding the difficult choices that have been put off for too long”. I think noble Lords will agree that the most shocking thing about yesterday’s Statement was that it was not the Labour Government but the Office for Budget Responsibility—set up by the Conservatives—that made clear that, a week ago, £21.9 billion of unfunded pressures were revealed to it for the first time. I was glad to hear that the Minister, the Chancellor and their colleagues at the Treasury will revisit the OBR charter, but what will the nature of that revisiting be? Will it make sure that, as George Osborne intended, the OBR will not be kept in the dark by any future Government?

I am grateful to my noble friend for his question. Yesterday’s letter from the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility shows his views on these important overspends being kept from the OBR. My noble friend asks about the reforms that have been announced. As part of the longer-term plan to fix the foundations of the economy, we are going to introduce significant additional reforms to strengthen the fiscal framework and ensure that this can never happen again. Those initial reforms were welcomed yesterday by Richard Hughes, the chair of the OBR. He also said that he will initiate his own review to determine whether those reforms are sufficient, and he may make additional recommendations. There are two elements to what was announced yesterday. First, we will introduce a fiscal lock, which has already been introduced in the other place as the Budget Responsibility Bill. This fiscal lock will ensure that there is always proper scrutiny of the Government’s fiscal plans. Secondly, we will increase transparency by, in future, requiring the Treasury to share with the OBR its assessment of immediate public spending pressures and enshrine that in the charter for budget responsibility, in essence so that this never happens again—no Government can ever again cover up the true state of public finances.

My Lords, I warmly welcome the noble Lord to the Front Bench and congratulate him on his appointment. We have heard about shock today; I truly confess that I was shocked yesterday to see pensioners being picked on and yet again bearing the brunt of cost savings. This Government promised to protect the triple lock, but what they announced at a stroke yesterday, with virtually no notice, was worse than taking away the triple lock. The winter fuel payment is worth 3% of the basic state pension for over - 80s. I urge the Government to think again about the enormity of the decision that was made. Three hundred pounds does not sound like a lot to us, but to pensioners who will also have rising energy bills, to 800,000 pensioners who are not claiming pension credit and to those just above the threshold, this is compounding the cliff edge. We have already seen that £300 was taken away in the emergency cost of living payment was last year, and I agreed with that, but I urge the Government to reconsider and think about joining the winter fuel payment with the state pension so that it becomes taxable, saving some money that way. At the very least, they should delay any such decision until they are able to carefully assess the impact on some of the very poorest pensioners.

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her kind words. She is extremely expert in these matters, and I have the greatest respect for her, but I think that her analysis is not correct in terms of the value of the triple lock versus the winter fuel payment. In the other place yesterday, the Chancellor confirmed that pensioners will continue to benefit from the triple lock throughout this Parliament. On the winter fuel payment, this of course is not an easy decision and I can understand why there is disappointment about it, but it is the right decision in the circumstances. The level of overspend is not sustainable. Left unaddressed, it would have meant a 25% increase in the Government’s financing needs this year, so it falls on this Government to take the difficult decisions to make the necessary in-year savings. We will, of course, work to maximise the take-up of pension credit in two ways: bringing together the administration of housing benefit and pension credit, and working with older people’s charities and local authorities to raise awareness of pension credit and to help identify households not claiming it.

My Lords, I congratulate the Financial Secretary on his appointment and say how glad many of us are about his return to the Treasury. We recall—as I look around, there are a number of folk who do—his excellent service last time he was in that place. Will he also please draw to the attention of the House —and Members opposite in particular—that when he was last at the Treasury, the United Kingdom was second only to the United States in increases in productivity and indeed had the highest growth in GDP of any member of the G7? Will he reject the carping criticisms and crocodile tears that have come from Members opposite, here and in the other place? Will he reaffirm his Government’s commitment to building on human capital and innovation to support long-term growth?

I am extremely grateful to my noble friend for his kind words. He is quite right: not only are the previous Government guilty of what we are discussing today, of running up an enormous overspend and of hiding that from Parliament, the public and the Opposition at the time, but they left us with possibly the worst economic inheritance since the Second World War. That contrasts sharply with the performance of the economy under the last Labour Government. Of course, growth is absolutely our priority. That growth will take time, but we are absolutely committed to doing what it takes to return this economy to a sustainable level of growth.

My Lords, I welcome the Minister to his position on the Front Bench. As we listen to this tale of consistent overspend and budget failures being swept under the carpet, it is very hard to imagine that civil servants in several departments were not increasingly unhappy about what was going on, including a lack of a spending review since 2021—extraordinary really. Can the Minister assure those civil servants that they will not be guilty if they come forward and talk of any pressures that have been applied to them? The previous Government had form on that, and I think that there should be an amnesty for any civil servant who was put in a deeply uncomfortable position by, in effect, telling untruths to the country.

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her question. Of course, at the end of the day, civil servants advise and Ministers decide. We have full confidence in the Treasury and all civil servants in the way that they do their jobs. She is absolutely right that part of the problem was the continual delay to hold a spending review; the last spending review was in 2021. That sits behind so many of these problems: that budgets were never adjusted to account for any of the decisions that were taken subsequent to that spending review. The Chancellor announced yesterday that she has commissioned the OBR to deliver a full economic and fiscal forecast, which will be presented alongside a Budget on 30 October. She also announced that the Government have launched a multi-year spending review to conclude in spring 2025, setting budgets for at least three years of the five-year forecast period. As part of this, final budgets for this year and next year will be set alongside the Budget on 30 October. The Government are also committed to holding a spending review every two years, which will set departmental expenditure limits for three years, to avoid uncertainty for departments and bring stability back to our public finances.

My Lords, cost of living crises are created by inflation. There was a generational shock to global supply chains during and after the pandemic, followed by the war in Ukraine, which together caused a serious spike in global energy, food and goods prices. Those factors caused inflation and the ensuing cost of living crisis, not the Government at the time. Therefore, what is the Minister’s assessment of the clause in the Statement which says that people were already being hurt by the previous Government’s cost of living crisis?

I am grateful to the noble Earl for his question. He is absolutely right that the origins of many of the shocks that the British economy experienced were global; however, the UK suffered worse and for longer than many comparative countries. Inflation stayed higher for longer in this country than I think in any other comparative country. The reason for that is the decisions taken by the previous Government, and there were three in particular: austerity, which choked off investment; a badly handled Brexit deal; and the Liz Truss Budget, which crashed the economy and sent mortgage rates spiralling.

My Lords, I too congratulate my noble friend the Minister on his appointment, and his performance this afternoon has shown what authority he has in that post. Does he agree that capable Minister though the noble Baroness was, and respected in this House, she cannot possibly believe the guff that she has just read out, sent to her from down the Corridor, no doubt? The truth is, as the letter from the chair of the OBR confirms, they were not told the full information. There was a monumental mess left by the previous Government, who were not straight with the electorate during the election campaign, promising massive tax cuts and huge increases in defence spending which they could not possibly finance. However, can the Minister confirm that the payments given to doctors and others in the public sector are merited? They are vital public sector workers who have been treated miserably by the previous Government, and justice is at last being done.

I am very grateful to my noble friend for his kind words. Of course, as always, he is absolutely correct: the previous Government had exhausted the reserve. They had spent it more than three times over only three months into the financial year, yet they continued to make unfunded commitment after unfunded commitment that they knew—cynically—they could not afford, knowing the money was not there. They told no one about this. It is deeply shocking. What is more shocking, as my noble friend said, is that they continued to do this throughout the recent general election campaign. They continued to make unfunded tax and spending commitments with money that they knew, looking back at what they had in the Treasury, was not there to meet any of them. It is deeply shocking not only that they did it but that they learnt nothing from it. From the words of the noble Baroness today, it is still not clear that they have learnt anything from what they did while they were in government. I join my noble friend in saying that the decision to meet the recommendations of the pay review bodies is absolutely the right one. Again, we have heard nothing but criticism from the other side for that. What is not right is that the previous Government—extraordinarily —published no guidance on what could or not be afforded, nor is it right that they then failed to prepare in any way for those recommendations in departmental budgets, and nor is it right that they had not held a spending review since 2021, which is the root cause for many of these problems.

My Lords, around 2 million pensioners are caught in the income tax net because of frozen tax thresholds. Now, we are taking away another £300 from the same people through a measure that was not in our manifesto. I have already received many messages from pensioners expressing great concern about this. The Government could have introduced a taper to lessen the pain to help many pensioners. Will the Minister give a commitment to have another look at that? Also, this document, produced by the Treasury, has lots of financial numbers but there is no mention of any human cost whatever. Last year, 5,000 pensioners died of cold because they were unable to afford heating. Has he made any estimates of how many more will die because £300 will be taken away from them?

As my noble friend perhaps did not acknowledge, this is not an easy decision and I understand why there is disappointment about it, but it is the right decision in the circumstances. The level of overspend we inherited is simply not sustainable. Left unaddressed, it would have meant a 25% increase in the Government’s financing needs this year, so it falls on this Government to take the difficult decisions to make the necessary in-year savings.

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Boateng, correctly drew attention to our productivity problems. How much scope does the Minister think there is for improving our productivity? There are, obviously, the welcome planning reforms but how far does he think he can improve our productivity in percentage terms, and to what timescale?

I am grateful to the noble Earl for that question. He is absolutely right: productivity must be increased because growth is a central mission of this Government, and we will not increase growth sustainably unless we increase productivity. Growth will not, of course, happen overnight. He asked for a timescale. It is difficult to judge, but we have already made significant progress—probably more progress on growth measures—in the first three weeks of being in government than were made over the past 14 years. They include planning reforms to get Britain building; a national wealth fund to catalyse private investment; a pensions investment review to unlock capital; skills England to boost skills across our country; and work across government on a new industrial strategy.

My Lords, I declare an interest. My title is Lord Sentamu, of Lindisfarne, which is in Northumberland. In Berwick, where I live, a hospital is being built. Will the building continue, or is there a question mark because of the finances? Secondly, I want to return to the question of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, and the Minister’s colleague, regarding the health service. The Secretary of State for the Department of Health and Social Care said that social care is not fit for purpose. How long are we to wait for the implementation of Dilnot? If social care really is not fit for purpose, I did not hear in the Chancellor’s statement what is going to be done about that challenge to a lot of our citizens. Over the past six months, I have attended a lot of hospitals. The challenge for those who are sick is so big that somebody has got to do something about it.

I am grateful to the noble and right reverend Lord for his question. As was set out yesterday, we will conduct a complete review of the new hospital building programme, with a thorough, realistic and costed timetable for delivery. I cannot give him any specific information on the project he mentioned. As I said to other noble Lords, we are absolutely committed to reforming adult social care to create a sustainable system that delivers for the people who draw on that care, their families and the social care workforce. We will work to build consensus for the reforms needed to build a national care service.

My Lords, with respect to the details revealed in the Chancellor’s statement yesterday, on some of which the noble Baroness, Lady Penn, casts some doubt, has the Minister noticed the statement published by the IFS yesterday evening? It stated: “some of the specifics are indeed shocking, and raise some difficult questions for the last government. If the scale of these overspends and spending pressures was apparent in the spring—and in lots of cases, there’s no reason to suppose otherwise—then it is hard to understand why they weren’t made clear or dealt with in the Spring Budget. Jeremy Hunt’s £10 billion cut to national insurance looks ever less defensible”. Does the Minister agree that the Spring Budget was another example of the economic mismanagement and fiscal irresponsibility that is a persistent characteristic of this Conservative Party?

I am grateful to my noble friend for drawing the House’s attention to yesterday’s remarks from the IFS. It is clear that it is as shocked at the rest of us at the scale of this overspend. I 100% agree with my noble friend that the Spring Budget was just the latest and, fortunately, last episode in 14 years of failure from the party opposite.