Economic Growth: Public Spending

Question

15:07:00

Asked by

To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the effect on economic growth of the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s comments before the Budget on the “public spending inheritance” and of the consequent rise in employer National Insurance contributions.

My Lords, it was this Government’s duty in the Budget last year to fix the foundations of the economy and repair the £22 billion black hole in the public finances. We have always been clear that there are costs to responsibility; the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions will have consequences for businesses and beyond, but the costs of irresponsibility for the economy and working people would have been far greater. We are, of course, not satisfied with the growth rate. That is why we are going further and faster on economic growth, including through the measures announced in the Chancellor’s recent growth speech.

My Lords, it seems the Government have no real idea of the damage the Chancellor has caused to the economy with her negativity and the ideological jobs tax. Perhaps they will listen to the CBI, which reports that expectations in the private sector are now the lowest in over two years, and private sector activity fell again in the three months to January. The Recruitment and Employment Confederation survey points to the most widespread weakening in demand for staff since the height of Covid in August 2020. The CEO said, somewhat damningly, that government actions are acting as “brakes on progress”. When will the Minister acknowledge that the Budget for growth and stability has produced the diametrically opposite result? If the Government are ideologically driven to extract cash from the private sector, there are much more business-efficient and tax-friendly ways of so doing.

I am grateful to the noble Lord for his question, but his contention seems to be that we were wrong to be honest about the challenges in the public finances, and should instead have maintained the previous Government’s cover-up. He seems to be saying that we were wrong to deal with those challenges, and should instead have maintained the £22 billion black hole in the public finances. Let me be clear: those are exactly the two ingredients—hiding from scrutiny and hiding from reality—at the heart of the Liz Truss mini-Budget, and we saw how that ended. If that is the noble Lord’s recommendation, I fundamentally disagree with him. We were right to restore honesty and transparency to the public finances, and we were right to repair them, which is why we took the difficult decisions that we did.

My Lords, does the Minister agree that the last Tory Government left £22 billion to be paid by somebody? We heard no suggestion just now of how you bridge the gap between what the country can afford and that £22 billion.

I completely agree with my noble friend. He is absolutely right that the previous Government left a £22 billion black hole; they had no idea how to fund that. We have still heard absolutely no alternative put forward by the Conservative Party: no alternative for dealing with the challenges that we face, no alternative for restoring economic stability and therefore no plan for driving economic growth.

My Lords, does the Minister accept that growth will be very limited unless we fix the NHS, but that the NHS cannot be fixed until we significantly strengthen and expand both community health and social care services? So why are the Government levying increased employers’ NICs on GPs, dentists, pharmacies, hospices and care services so that they are now planning significant cuts? How does this make any sense? By the way, our proposals were costed and funded.

I am grateful to the noble Baroness for her question. With the greatest respect, she wants the investment in the National Health Service but is opposing the national insurance contributions increases that fund this increased investment. I am afraid that you cannot have one without the other.

My Lords, does my noble friend agree that it is part of democracy that there is a universal call for politicians to tell the truth but that, when they do, they attract criticism, like that from the noble Lord opposite? Last year our right honourable friend the Chancellor told the truth about what she described as the black hole, and which I described as: “Nothing bloody worked”. Is it not a fact that to repair the damage done in 14 years will take time and patience? The Government are showing the right way with fresh capital investment and a total commitment to stimulating growth in the private and public sectors of our economy.

I completely agree with my noble friend, and I am grateful to him for what he says. It is absolutely no approach to say that we should continue a previous Government’s cover-up and not be honest about the difficulties in the public finances. It is also completely wrong to say that we were wrong to deal with those challenges and should instead have maintained what my noble friend describes as a £22 billion black hole in the public finances. We were absolutely right to do what we did. We know that there are costs to responsibility, but the cost to irresponsibility would have been far greater—we saw that in the Liz Truss mini-Budget. Repeating the failures of the last 14 years is exactly not what the British economy needs.

My Lords, taking together the impact of national insurance contribution increases and the 6.7% hike in the national minimum wage, can the Minister explain how raising the cost of employment by an average of £2,400 per employee is consistent with boosting economic growth?

I am sorry that the noble Lord is not able to support the increases in the national minimum wage; that is a shame to hear. I do not know whether he was able to read the monetary policy report that was published alongside the growth forecast last week, but the Bank of England said that the combined effects of the measures in the Autumn Budget are expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75%.

The biggest mistake the Government made was during the general election, which they were obviously going to win, when they promised not to raise the basic taxes—income tax, VAT, national insurance for employees and so on—which are the normal toolbox of a Chancellor, so that when they inherited a fiscal crisis, they raised quite the worst possible tax on employers and employees. At the same time, they borrowed billions of pounds more, saying it was not more spending but investment. After this disaster, will the Minister now agree that the new Government have made a financial crisis even worse than it was when they were elected? Will they turn the March Statement into a mini-Budget to try to begin to repair the damage they have done?

With the greatest respect to the noble Lord, I completely disagree with what he says. His contention is that we should have taxed working people after a cost of living crisis, and after the previous Government froze income tax thresholds and raised taxes on working people by £30 billion. I completely disagree; if that is his contention, I think he is wrong. He also says we were wrong to increase investment in the economy. The IMF has said that the lack of public investment in the economy was one of the major constraints to economic growth, and we have rectified that—so, on that point too, I think he is wrong.

My Lords, there is great concern in the charitable sector about these increases. Can the Minister tell us whether His Majesty’s Government are monitoring the effect on the charitable sector?

We of course monitor the effect of all our policies on all sectors of the economy. We have increased the amount of money going to charities, and we will stand by that increased investment.

My Lords, the fact is that people across the UK are deeply concerned about the rise in employers’ NICs, as we will discuss on Report on the NICs Bill on 25 February. This is the wrong tax raid, and the OBR has reported that next year it will raise £10 billion less than the Treasury forecasts. Last week we heard, as we feared, the Bank of England halving its growth forecast for the UK. Will the Minister accept that the threat of the Chancellor’s jobs tax has crashed business confidence and the economy?

No, I will not. The noble Baroness says it was the wrong tax rise; she has said that several times. She has never said what the right tax rise is, so I am not sure how she plans to fill the £22 billion black hole. She talks about growth forecasts; I notice that she did not mention that the Bank of England upgraded its growth forecast for the next year and the year after. She did not mention that the IMF now forecasts us to be the fastest-growing major European economy. She did not mention that the UK is now the second most attractive country in the world for inward investment—the first time we have been so for 28 years. We have still heard no alternative at all put forward by the Conservative Party: no alternative for dealing with the challenges that we face, no alternative for restoring economic stability and therefore no plan for driving economic growth.

My Lords, does the Minister agree that attracting capital investment is a way forward, in which we can get growth and have some optimism instead of all the pessimism that we keep hearing? Will he review the possibility that we should explore and bring in more private-public partnerships that will bring capital in from across the world, maybe even America? We might have PPPs attached to the NHS and find ways to do a trade deal with the Americans.

I completely agree with what my noble friend says about business sentiment—increasing positive sentiment in the economy—and I agree with him about increasing investment in the economy. It would be nice to hear a bit more positive sentiment from the party opposite. I will read what Rain Newton-Smith from the CBI said in the aftermath of the Chancellor’s growth speech last week: businesses will welcome the Chancellor “grasping decisions that have sat on the desk of government for too long”, showing that we are serious about growth and prepared to take the tough decisions that are necessary.