Charter for Budget Responsibility

15:02:00

I beg to move, That the Charter for Budget Responsibility: Autumn 2024, which was laid before this House on 22 January, be approved. It feels like I was in the House only a few moments ago, but I am delighted to be back at the Dispatch Box for this important debate. Sustained economic growth, supported by sound investment, is the only route to improving the prosperity of our country, and, in so doing, the living standards of working people. Growth is the primary mission of this Government. This debate is timely, as the House knows, given that the Chancellor gave her growth speech only this morning. In her speech, she reiterated that without a stable economy, we cannot hope to attract investment into the UK; that we cannot grow our economy with a black hole in our public finances; and, importantly, that fixing the foundations of the economy starts with the new fiscal rules, which we are voting on here today. The Chancellor announced in her speech that we are taking difficult decisions in the long-term interests of the country, including, for example, on a third runway at Heathrow airport. As she set out, the Government support and are inviting proposals for a third runway at Heathrow to be brought forward by the summer. Once proposals have been received, we will take forward a full assessment through the airport national policy statement, to ensure that any scheme is delivered in line with our legal, environmental and climate obligations. According to a recent study from Frontier Economics, a third runway could increase GDP by 4.3% over the next 25 years. It is estimated that over half—around 60%—of that boost would go to areas outside London and the south-east, underlining the fact that Heathrow as a hub airport brings prosperity not just to London but to every region and nation of the country. The Government have also set out further plans to reform our planning system, to provide confidence to investors and builders, and to show that Britain can get building again and that we can deliver on our promises. Confidence starts with stability. Stability is the precondition to a healthy, growing economy, because it gives UK businesses and households the essential confidence that they need to spend and invest, encouraging innovation and boosting our economy. In outlining our new, robust and transparent fiscal framework, the charter for Budget responsibility that we are voting on today provides a vital and stable foundation from which our economy can grow. What the instability of the last 14 years has given us is clear: low productivity, rising debt levels and declining public services performance. Public sector net debt is 97.2% of GDP, and net financial debt remains close to its highest recorded level as a share of GDP, which was reached in the pandemic. Per capita GDP remains 0.8% below pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, had the UK economy grown at the average rate of OECD economies over the past 14 years, it would be over £150 billion larger than it is today. Public investment in the UK has historically been low and inconsistent. Our public capital stock, as a share of GDP, is the joint lowest in the G7, and more than 10 percentage points below the G7 median. Underneath all those challenges was a £22 billion black hole of in-year spending pressures that were not disclosed by the previous Government to Parliament, the public or the Office for Budget Responsibility—[Interruption.] My colleague the shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, the hon. Member for North Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller), seems to have comments on the £22 billion black hole. I will happily take an intervention from him. [Interruption.] I am told that I cannot take an intervention, Madam Deputy Speaker. That is very sad. But in that context, I look forward to the shadow Chief Secretary outlining in his speech how that £22 billion black hole came into being.

For the record, the Minister can take an intervention if he wishes to. This reminds me of the many years all three of us spent on the Business and Trade Committee, when we could not agree on anything either.

I was always enamoured of your arguments, Madam Deputy Speaker, as I continue to be today. I look forward to the prospect of many interventions from Members across the House as part of this important debate, and I encourage the shadow Chief Secretary to intervene.

I am grateful for the opportunity to intervene. Can the Chief Secretary to the Treasury confirm whether the OBR validated his £22 billion claim?

The OBR was very clear, as Members will see in its publications in the House of Commons Library, that the spending plans announced by the previous Government were—to quote the chair of the OBR in his evidence to the Treasury Committee—a “fiction.” The OBR forecast provided to the Government made it clear that had the in-year spending pressure been reported transparently, the last forecast under the previous Administration would have been “materially different”. That shows that the lack of transparency on in-year spending was a secret held by only a few Ministers in the last Government, and neither the public, Parliament, we in opposition nor the OBR knew about that problem. That is why this Government have already legislated to bring forward additional strengthened powers for independent checks and balances and transparency, and we have committed to sharing in-year spending pressures with the Office for Budget Responsibility so that we never end up in a situation like the one we inherited. The Chancellor’s autumn Budget put the public finances back on track, and we will keep them there. Our commitment to sound public finances is non-negotiable. Our new charter for Budget responsibility, underpinned by the new fiscal rules, ensures a more transparent fiscal framework and provides a stable foundation for growth. Today I will outline the changes that we have made to the charter for Budget responsibility, as published in draft at the autumn Budget 2024 and laid before this House last week. Fiscal rules are a key part of the UK fiscal framework. At the autumn Budget in 2024, the Chancellor confirmed the Government’s fiscal rules as set out in our manifesto, which will play a vital role in unlocking investment. These rules will put the public finances on a sustainable path and prioritise investment to support long-term growth. They consist of two rules: the stability rule and the investment rule. The stability rule aims to move the current Budget into balance so that day-to-day spending is met by revenues, meaning that the Government will borrow only for investment. We will meet this rule in 2029-30, until that becomes the third year of the forecast. From that point on, we will balance the current Budget in the third year of every Budget, held annually each autumn. This will provide a tougher constraint on day-to-day spending so that difficult decisions cannot be constantly delayed or deferred, as they were under the last Government. I am sure the House would recommend that the Government should live within their means. That means that public services have to be able to live within their budgets, and it means that tax revenues have to pay for day-to-day spending. Never again will we end up in the position the country ended up in under the last Government, when every week and every month the country borrowed more and more in order to pay the day-to-day bills. That is why when hon. Members on the Opposition Benches complain about the debt burden this country is having to deal with, they should look in the mirror, because they built up that debt burden. The people responsible for filling up the country’s credit card just to pay the bills every month, even in advance of the pandemic, were Conservative Ministers. That will never happen under a Labour Government because of our clear fiscal rules. It is why for the first time in 17 years we are doing a zero-based review of all public spending, not once done under the last Administration but done in the first spending review of this Labour Government. Secondly, our investment rule requires the Government to reduce net financial debt, defined as public sector net financial liabilities, as a share of the economy. Public sector net financial liabilities is an accredited official statistic, produced by the Office for National Statistics since 2016; based on international statistical guidance, it has been forecast by the OBR since that time. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has noted that the metric offers a “more complete picture of the Government’s financial position, while removing some of the perverse incentives associated with a narrow focus on PSND”— public sector net debt. This rule keeps debt on a sustainable path while allowing the step change needed in investment by targeting a measure of debt that captures not just the debt that Government owe, but financial assets that are expected to generate future returns. By targeting net financial debt for the investment rule, the Government are prioritising investment to drive long-term growth while getting debt falling as a share of the economy. The move to net financial debt will be supported by a comprehensive set of guardrails to give confidence that there are rules around the investments the country can make. Like our stability rule, our investment rule will apply in 2029-30 until that year becomes the third year of the forecast, and from that point onwards net financial debt will fall in the third year of every forecast. The move to net financial debt means that at the autumn Budget the Government were in a position to confirm public investment that will be £100 billion higher over the forecast period compared to the previous Government’s plans. I am pleased to say that in its autumn forecast the OBR confirmed that the Government are on track to meet both fiscal rules two years early, in 2027-28, displaying the Government’s commitment to sound finances. The Chancellor has asked the OBR to produce a forecast on 26 March, which will assess us against these rules once again. Our commitment to these fiscal rules is iron-clad. The UK has changed its fiscal rules in the past more than any other country, but this Government know that stability matters. That is why the new charter sets out clearer circumstances under which the fiscal rules can temporarily be suspended through a new strengthened escape clause. The new escape clause requires a decision on suspension be supported by the OBR’s analysis so that the rules can be suspended only with sufficient justification. As well as new fiscal rules, the updated charter for budget responsibility includes a set of wider reforms that ensure a more stable and transparent fiscal framework. Because fiscal responsibility is so central to this Government’s mission, the first piece of legislation passed in this Parliament was the Budget Responsibility act 2024. It delivered our manifesto commitment to introduce a fiscal lock. I do not think Members on either side of the House need reminding of what happens when huge unfunded fiscal commitments are made without proper scrutiny and key economic institutions such as the OBR are sidelined. We will not let that happen again. The fiscal lock therefore guarantees in law that from now on every fiscally significant change to tax and spending will be subject to scrutiny by the independent OBR. The charter sets out the details of how the fiscal lock will operate. As well as the new guiding fiscal principles to move towards only borrowing for investment and to keep debt on a sustainable path, the OBR will monitor progress against a dashboard of key debt sustainability metrics to ensure the Government are taking a broad view of fiscal sustainability. A broader view will allow the Government to form a full assessment of the sustainability of the public finances and support us in seeking to improve sustainability over time. We are also enhancing fiscal and economic stability by confirming in the charter today that the Government’s intention to move to one major fiscal event per year will be honoured, giving families and businesses certainty on tax and spending plans, as will the requirement on the Treasury to conduct regular spending reviews every two years and setting spending for at least three years, ensuring public services have certainty on their funding and that spending decisions cannot again be repeatedly delayed. In addition, it guarantees a three-year rolling budget for the OBR, to support its independence. We are further strengthening fiscal transparency and accountability by accepting all the recommendations of the OBR review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits, including to improve the spending information the Treasury shares with the OBR. The OBR is widely recognised as providing independent, credible and high-quality analysis. It is a guarantor of economic stability. Going forward, the Treasury will provide the OBR with information on the in-year position, allowing it to forecast underspending and overspending against departmental expenditure limits where appropriate. This will ensure the unfunded pressures identified at the public spending audit never happen again. We are a Government who will consider the impact of our current spending decisions on future generations, and to show how the long-term health of the public balance sheet is bolstered by sound investments, the charter requires the OBR to report on the long-term impact of capital investment and other policies at fiscal events. Finally, I turn to the welfare cap, which we are also debating today. The Government are retaining the welfare cap within our fiscal framework to support our ambitions to keep welfare spending sustainable in the medium term. The OBR will assess whether the new cap has been met at the first fiscal event of the next Parliament. The latest OBR forecast judged the previous welfare cap to be breached by £8.6 billion, following a trend of forecast breaches by the previous Government. This is clearly an unsustainable path for welfare spending. This breach underlines the inheritance left by the previous Government: a failure to control welfare spending and to bring forward radical reform, and, crucially, a failure by the last Government to support people to get the treatment or skills they need to return to work.

In his assessment, what estimate has the Minister made of the increase in poverty and child poverty in our society and the effects of largely uncontrolled rents in the private rented sector, often well above the local housing allowance, which leads people into poverty?

The right hon. Member knows that the Labour party takes child poverty seriously. That is why we launched the child poverty taskforce at the start of this Government, co-chaired by the Work and Pensions Secretary and the Education Secretary, to do a root and branch review of the long-term structural causes of child poverty and the interventions the Government could take to reverse those growing trends that none of us across the House wants to see. The taskforce will report in the coming months, but he is right to point out that housing costs and insecure housing have become ever more important drivers of child poverty in recent years. That is why, through the Renters’ Rights Bill introduced to the House by the Deputy Prime Minister, we are taking action in the private rented sector to provide additional protections and support for families in rental accommodation—for example, banning no-fault evictions and giving more security of tenure for people who are renting. Like me, the right hon. Member will have had lots of casework where hard-working families, who are just trying to make ends meet and to provide security of income and a roof over their head for them and their families, are failed by a market in which house prices to buy and rent are out of reach and the rate at which we build affordable and social housing is not meeting the demand of the people who need it. That is why we increased funding at the Budget by half a billion pounds to build more affordable and social housing, which we know can be delivered quickly. On a visit last week to Erewash, I visited social housing developments supported by Homes England and learned from the company building those homes for emh Homes, the east midlands housing association, that it takes only 14 to 16 weeks from laying the foundations through to giving the key to the person moving in. That reminds us why our reform agenda is so important, because the time involved in building—planning, consenting, infrastructure and financing deals—has been significantly holding back the rate of development of social and affordable housing across the country. Those are exactly the sorts of issues where Government have the ability to make a difference, which is why we are committed to accelerating our plans to build 1.5 million homes a year, but, crucially, to tilting that towards more affordable and social housing to support people across the country. The Government are resetting the welfare cap, given that the previous one was repeatedly breached, and we are doing so based on the latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecast. That will set a new target for 2029-30, alongside our action to control welfare spending and to help people who deserve the assistance. The Government have demonstrated that they will not shy away from doing what is needed to put welfare spending on a more sustainable path—for example, with different decisions such as targeting winter fuel payments to those who need them the most and reclaiming £4.3 billion of public money lost to fraud and error in the welfare system in 2029-30, and £9.2 billion over five years. We have also announced steps to tackle inactivity through the “Get Britain Working” White Paper and will set out further proposals in the health and disability Green Paper later in spring. Progress against the cap will be monitored by the Treasury and the Department for Work and Pensions. That will include a strengthened accountability framework and the DWP publishing an annual report on welfare spending. By strengthening the accountability of the welfare cap, getting more people into work and reforming the welfare system for long-term sustainability, we are taking the necessary steps to keep spending under control. But crucially, we are also serving the people of this country by ensuring that people who for too long have been at home unable to be seen in the NHS or to get access to mental health services, who have been unable to get the training or support they need to take advantage of the jobs available in our country, and who have been unable to find jobs near where they are, see hope in their futures and know they have a Government on their side who will support them to get back into work. That outcome is better for them, their family finances and their futures, but it also supports us in ensuring fiscal stability. The reforms to the fiscal framework outlined in the new charter for Budget responsibility will ensure a more stable approach to tax and spend, as well as better transparency and accountability for our Government and future Governments. That stability is inseparable from our plans for growth. Alongside that growth, restoring stability means the Government can pay for increased funding to repair, reform and modernise our public services and to invest in the infrastructure needed to rebuild Britain. For those reasons, I commend the motion to the House.

To clear up any confusion, this is the debate and motion on the charter for Budget responsibility. The next motion and debate will be on the welfare cap. I call the shadow Minister.

15:25:00

As the Chancellor scours the nation turning over every stone in her desperate effort to mitigate the damage from her choices in last year’s Budget of broken promises, it falls to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to keep his face straight as he lectures the House on the importance of fiscal responsibility. He has shown the performative skills of one of the greats of the west end, but his mouthing of the words of economic stewardship, even as his audience of wealth creators get up out of their seats and leave the show, leaves few of us impressed. They know what the British public know: that this is a Treasury team and a Government who, day after day, create more problems and, day after day, demonstrate that they are clearly out of their depth.

As the shadow Minister and, I hope, the House knows, I am a humble man and am always ears-open to advice, wisdom and feedback on how we can do things better. Given his opening remarks on fiscal stability, I wonder whether he has any reflections to offer the House from the time of his party being in government and, indeed, from his time in the Treasury under former Prime Minister Liz Truss about what went wrong and what we might do differently.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury, like so many on the Labour Benches, loves to talk—almost fondly—about the former Prime Minister Liz Truss. Well, at least she knew her time was up after 50 days; we are stuck with the Chancellor for five years. When it was noted a few months back that the entire Labour Cabinet could barely scrape together a year’s worth of business experience between them, it was thought to be just a curiosity. Little did we know it was an early warning sign of their lack of suitability for the task of managing the British economy: business confidence down, job losses up, consumer confidence in the gutter and Government debt spiralling further upwards—and they are just getting started. There are, of course, potential benefits from the investments that are being announced today. We share a desire for a more competitive, less regulated economy based on a passion for free enterprise, but while Labour celebrates the exodus of millionaires from our country, we recognise that it represents a loss of skills, lower job creation, and the evaporation of potential future taxation to support public services. While Labour sees the attack on family farms and family businesses as a vital part of its warped class-war ideology, we recognise that putting family at the heart of enterprise is a critical piece of our nation’s proud heritage of freedom.

The shadow Minister talks fondly about the importance of family farms. Where were his comments on that topic when his party was negotiating trade deals with Australia and New Zealand that have sorely impacted farms around the country?

My friend, the Liberal Democrat spokesman on economics, makes a fair point about the impact of trade agreements on family finances. However, as she knows, that is very different from the pain that farmers are feeling right now about Labour’s attack on the ability of families to pass on their farm to their children—it is different in scale and in type. It is a damaging policy by the Labour party that we know, or at least hope, that Labour will change in due course. I am sure that today, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury is also engaged in a series of phone conversations with his departmental colleagues as, ahead of the March update on the OBR’s financial forecast, they review what it will mean for their departmental expenditures. As he has those difficult phone conversations, I say to the Chief Secretary that we stand ready to support effective steps on prudent financial responsibility.

On the point of prudent financial responsibility—[Interruption.] I think the House is interested in a long and detailed debate this evening, so it is important that we dive into the details. On this issue of prudent fiscal responsibility, the hon. Gentleman presumably welcomes our fiscal rule that day-to-day costs will be met by revenues, as opposed to having to borrow money all the time to pay those day-to-day costs. That is something that consistently happened under the last Conservative Administration, which was a mistake in the context of fiscal responsibility, was it not?

I am aware that the Chief Secretary to the Treasury is interested in a prolonged debate today—I am not sure whether that is because of the content of the debate, or for other reasons. I would say gently to him that writing rules is different from following rules, so he will be judged by this House on how he meets the rules that he has set. My purpose today is to cover some of those rules, and I will have some comments on them, but first, although we will be having a separate debate on the welfare cap, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury made some points about it. My hon. Friend the Member for Faversham and Mid Kent (Helen Whately) will respond formally on that issue, so these are just my thoughts, really. The welfare cap, of course, was introduced in 2014 by Conservative Chancellor George Osborne, who recognised the particular difficulties with forecasting and managing certain welfare budgets. At the 2014 Budget, he explained his rationale: “Britain should always be proud of having a welfare system that helps those most in need, but never again should we allow its costs to spiral out of control and its incentives to become so distorted that it pays not to work. In future, any Government who want to spend more on benefits will have to be honest with the public about the costs, will need the approval of Parliament, and will be held to account by this permanent cap on welfare.”—[Official Report, 19 March 2014; Vol. 577, c. 785.] George Osborne’s initiative has shown its value over the past decade, and it is right that the new Government are following its intent in principle and, one hopes, also in practice. Our task today is to listen to the explanations for the breaching of the welfare cap for fiscal year 2024-25 and the rationale for the particular limits that the Chief Secretary’s Government will set on the welfare cap for future fiscal years through 2029-30. As the Chief Secretary said, in October, as part of the first Budget of the Parliament, the OBR provided its assessment of the status of welfare spending compared with the cap that was set in 2024. That assessment was an excess of £8.6 billion, which indicated a breach. With the country now spending over £156 billion on welfare every year and with the obvious pressures on public expenditure, there should be a determination to find savings in the welfare budget. Indeed, that was the intention of the Conservative party at the last election, with a commitment to reduce expenditure by £12 billion through better targeting of disability benefits, amending the levels of payments for those whose disabilities would not routinely be expected to lead to additional life expenses, overhauling the fit note process, and introducing tougher sanctions on those who shirk the opportunity to work and contribute to society. But the Labour Government today appear to be set on a different course, with a pathway for the welfare cap that is up, not down, growing from this year’s cap of £137 billion to reach £195 billion by 2029-30. That is a 42% increase in the welfare cap. It is important to note that at the same point in the last Parliament, when the Conservative party set the rules on the welfare cap, that increase was limited to 15%.

That difference between 15% and 42% is important, is it not?

It is important. I think we should reflect on what some of the drivers are behind the increased spend in the welfare budget, because the evidence is very clear. For people who can be—and indeed wish to be—economically active but are in receipt of universal credit support and other forms of payment, the main reasons are being unable to get access to the treatment they need in the health and mental health services space or being unable to access training opportunities for the jobs that are available in the market. Without diving too much into the weeds, that is the issue about the difference between the approach to austerity in day-to-day resource spending—where we cut spending to frontline public services—and annually managed expenditure.

That is all very well, but the Chief Secretary is talking about the wrong budget. He is talking about increases to the health budget or changes to aspects of the DWP budget; he is not talking about why this Government are allowing an increase of up to 42% in welfare payments in this country. That is a different issue. It shows laxity on the part of the Government. Serious questions need to be asked, and I am sure will be asked, in the next debate. Let me return to the charter for budget responsibility, which was established by former Chancellor George Osborne as part of the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011. On Second Reading, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury explained why the measure was necessary: “We inherited the largest budget deficit in our peacetime history, we inherited a budget deficit forecast to be the largest in the G20, and we inherited the largest structural deficit in the whole of Europe.”—[Official Report, 14 February 2011; Vol. 523, c. 746.] She did not have to make up numbers, as this Government have done, about some fanciful black hole; these were facts, and my former colleague, Justine Greening, was telling the truth to the nation. Indeed, truth is the foundation upon which any charter for budget responsibility is based. Let me be clear: when the Chancellor said on 13 November 2023 that she was “not going to fiddle the figures or make something to get different results”, the fiscal rules included in this charter demonstrate that she was not telling the truth. In this charter, the Chancellor has changed the rules on the measurement of debt from public sector net debt, or PSND, excluding the Bank of England, to public sector net financial liabilities, or PSNFL. This fiddling of the figures opened the taps for the Chancellor to borrow more, even while our debt to GDP ratio stands at historically high levels following the pandemic and the Ukraine war. The Guardian newspaper, which I am sure the Chief Secretary reads avidly, reported on 24 October 2024 that if my right hon. Friend the Member for Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt), the former Conservative Chancellor, had acted similarly to the current Chancellor, his fiscal headroom would have ballooned from £9 billion to £49 billion, but he knew better than the current Chancellor. The Chancellor has even had to create her own name for things, just so that she can claim she is getting debt falling. She said in her Budget statement that she will call PSNFL “net financial debt, for short.”—[Official Report, 30 October 2024; Vol. 755, c. 823.] The reality is that the proper measure of Government debt, as per the previous fiscal rules, is rising in every single year of the forecast. The OBR has confirmed that on the previous definition, which she had said she would keep to, the fiscal rules are being broken. At the last election, Labour said it would get debt falling, and the Government continue to claim that they are delivering that. They are doing nothing of the sort. Let us be very clear: debt is rising, and it is forecast to continue to rise. We will be spending nearly £50 billion more on debt interest over the next five years as a result of their first Budget alone. There are also concerns about the rolling three-year targets for the rule that the current Budget should be in surplus and the rule that debt—the Government’s dubious definition of debt—should be falling as a share of the economy. Like the water and fruit for Tantalus, the rules permit these reasonable targets to remain just out of reach every time—they are always there but never met. To extend my similes, the charter rules are to the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary as St Augustine regarded self-control: “Grant me chastity and self-control, but not yet.” The charter begins on shakier ground with a weaker Treasury team, but it remains an important part of our country’s fiscal framework. Under the rules of the House, the motion is not amendable, so we shall not oppose the measure. We do need fiscal rules, but we condemn the Government’s approach of fiddling the figures to add more borrowing. They promised that they would not, but, as so many times before, they have broken their promises once again.

15:40:00

It is a great pleasure to speak in the debate and something of a privilege to be the only Back-Bench speaker. I shall make a series of points, including welcoming the Chancellor’s commitment to growth and the announcements that she made today before moving on to a number of other areas. I commend what the Chancellor said this morning in Oxfordshire and, in particular, what she said about the importance of investment in infrastructure for the long term, whether in transport, new powers to streamline the planning process or indeed attracting more tech investment to the UK. My Reading Central constituency and the whole of Berkshire benefits enormously from such investment, so I wholeheartedly welcome her announcements and commend her for her work on that. If I may, I will somewhat cheekily ask the Chief Secretary to take a few points back to the Chancellor. In our area, we are looking for further investment to drive economic growth. I will highlight a couple of points of local importance. In particular, the western rail link to Heathrow scheme is supported by all Berkshire MPs and colleagues from across a much wider area. Heathrow airport is unusual in being a hub airport in western Europe without a rail link in both directions. A number of local authorities, parliamentary colleagues and the rail industry have pushed for this measure, which, compared with some points discussed in the Chancellor’s speech and more widely in the House this afternoon, would require only modest investment. A short stretch of railway line from Langley, just outside Slough, into the airport, where space for a station already exists, would significantly cut journey times for workers at the airport, commuters and many others, and attract business to Berkshire. The scheme is supported by local business groups. To give an idea of the importance to Reading, at the moment it takes around 50 minutes from Reading station to travel to Heathrow by bus, but it would be just 15 minutes with a rail link. Many of the firms relocating to the Reading area from across the country would be encouraged further by that and have far greater connectivity to international markets through swift access to Heathrow. Equally, it would appeal to inward investors coming to our part of England. There would be an additional benefit—the Chief Secretary may know well know about this—for travellers from the west of England and south Wales in vastly speeding up their journeys to Heathrow airport. I want to flag that up to him. May I ask the Chief Secretary to relay to the Chancellor my wholehearted support for the Oxford-Cambridge corridor? The area that I represent sits at the south-western edge of that corridor. Given the excellent rail and road connections between Reading, Berkshire and Oxford—it takes as little as 25 minutes to get from Reading town centre to Oxford city centre by rail—that route could extend the corridor, which will run through Northamptonshire and Bedfordshire, as the Chancellor highlighted. Indeed, the rail corridor into Berkshire and through southern Oxfordshire passes Culham, an area of significant science investment that was formerly the site of the UK and Europe’s Joint European Torus project. It also runs through Didcot, which is a major centre of inward investment, as well as to Reading. There would be enormous benefit to residents and businesses in Oxfordshire and to businesses in Berkshire if that were seen as a whole, rather than the line stopping in Oxford. I hope that he will take that back to his colleagues. I appreciate that many colleagues may want to speak later on the welfare cap motion, so I will limit my remarks and not stray too far. I would, however, like to describe some of the benefits to the Berkshire local economy of the stability that the Chief Secretary outlined. We have a fundamentally strong local economy; we are lucky to have high levels of growth relative to other parts of the UK. We face the same challenges as areas from across the country, which he outlined earlier: the importance of stability and long-term investment, and making sure that businesses understand that there is stability so that they invest and spend their own money creating jobs. Let me draw out some examples from local businesses. I represent a constituency that has high tech and telecoms employment. Something like 300,000 people work in those sectors in the county of Berkshire. In Reading, there is a significant cluster near the station, which has been fostered not just by the rebuilding of the station but by Reading being the western terminus of the Elizabeth line. That has led to a significant number of employers moving to the town centre. It is a good example of the benefits of investment that the Chancellor talked about earlier, and of the importance of high-speed rail and other improvements to rail and public transport, to connect major centres of employment and allow employers to recruit from a much wider pool. That is exactly the message I have been told when visiting employers in that area. They have based themselves near the station because they can access a much wider pool of workers with higher levels of skill, and that drives productivity and growth in their business. There are strong local examples which, at microeconomic level, make the point that the Chief Secretary has made today. Let me also draw the House’s attention to the importance of education, which the Chief Secretary hinted at, to managing public finances. In my experience, having a university in the constituency is a huge driver of economic activity, particularly for creating a skilled workforce, who often wish to remain in the constituency. That is certainly the case for many places the Chancellor described in her speech, particularly the great university cities of Oxford and Cambridge. It also applies to London and many other centres such as Manchester. Higher education is central. It must be linked with employment and offer the right programmes to attract a wider range of young people into higher education. It was a privilege to meet staff at Reading University recently. They briefed me on some of their work to encourage young people from families who traditionally might not have thought about going to university to consider higher education at their local university. That is an important part of the bigger picture. I commend the Chief Secretary for his wider approach on the importance of investment and stability linked to investment, in transport infrastructure, as well as IT and tech infrastructure such as data centres, and a range of other forms of infrastructure. Let me move on to some of the points made earlier. It is important to note that we are at a turning point. We have had a long period of low growth. The Government are right to make growth their top priority, to move on from 14 years of historically low growth compared with the UK average over the past 40 or 50 years and going back to the industrial revolution. The Chief Secretary rightly made the connection between growth and investment, and so did the Chancellor today. I welcome and wholeheartedly support the Chancellor’s emphasis on releasing pension savings to drive economic growth. That has been a successful policy both in Canada and in Australia. Although they are much bigger countries and have more natural resources, they have significant similarities to the UK—the benefit of English common law and many other historical advantages of our system and history. There are some important points to be made on that front. Above all, we must avoid the mistakes of recent years—the instability, the disastrous mini-Budget, the gambling with public finances and the lack of transparency. The Chief Secretary is right to commend this charter today. I will draw out two particular points to flag to the House that I think are vital. The first is reporting on capital investment, which is an important measure in the charter. The second is in-year pressures, which, from the point of view of managing public finances, is vital. As he rightly said, it will allow policymakers much greater insight into what is happening in near-real time, which is important in avoiding future problems. I commend those measures. In summary, the macro-level changes that we have described today will do a great deal to support my local small business, as well as larger investors coming into my constituency. I wholeheartedly support and welcome the measures set out today, and I am grateful for the opportunity to speak.

I call the Liberal Democrat spokesperson.

15:50:00

The charter for budget responsibility is at the heart of the OBR’s function, setting the Government’s fiscal rules, as well as the OBR’s broader remit and how it is to perform its duties. It is important to stress just how vital the OBR is for the sound management of our public finances and for the UK’s economic stability. I am very proud that the OBR was set up during my party’s time in office, and the Liberal Democrats have backed it at every turn since. In our most recent general election manifesto we said that every fiscal event should be accompanied by an OBR report, and we are pleased that this Government are taking the same approach. We also called on the Government at the time to establish the OBR to assess general election manifestos independently. Unfortunately, commitment to the OBR as an institution cannot be taken for granted, as we have seen over the past few years. We saw Liz Truss’s Conservative Government sideline the independent watchdog at the mini-Budget and cast doubt on its forecasts at every turn. Equally unfortunately, we all witnessed the consequences: soaring interest rates, sky-high mortgage bills and a spike in the cost of servicing our national debt. We Liberal Democrats are crystal clear that we can never have a repeat of that debacle.

The hon. Lady is making an excellent speech. Will she also reflect on the disastrous impacts on pensions savings, and particularly on people who were drawing their defined contribution pensions at that point in time? Some of my constituents had awful experiences, which they relayed to me.

The hon. Gentleman is right to point to the fact that many people were impacted by the mini-Budget in different ways. [Interruption.] I hear chuntering from a sedentary position from the shadow Minister, the hon. Member for North Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller). Those on the Conservative Benches may want to forget the impact of the mini-Budget, but many of our constituents across the country continue to live with the consequences. In the run-up to the Labour Government’s Budget, we Liberal Democrats welcomed one of the Government’s new fiscal rules—namely, the switch to public sector net financial liabilities as the targeted measure of debt. We are pleased that the Chancellor made a change that will create more room for productive public investment, while also making a commitment that debt as a share of GDP should keep falling. We Liberal Democrats have long recognised the need to boost public investment in a responsible way, and we are glad that the Government have moved in that direction. However, as we debate the new charter, it is also worth reflecting on how fiscal rules are treated in our politics more broadly. Although they are absolutely necessary for economic stability, there is too often a sense that fiscal targets can be arbitrary and that they are chosen based on what is convenient for each Government; previous Conservative Chancellors changed the fiscal rules five times in seven years between 2015 and 2022. What often seems to be lacking throughout the process is a sober, pragmatic dialogue about what the best fiscal rules are for our economy, for everything from growth and investment to jobs and net zero—a discussion perhaps ideally not affected by politics, but focused on what is right for our economy. Notwithstanding that, and although I hope we will all agree to these changes in the borrowing rules, the costs of borrowing clearly rely on good economic management, which, in turn, as the Chief Secretary said, relies on stability. Borrowing costs have gone up in part due to events abroad, but they have also risen because of the Government’s jobs tax, the uncertainty over their business rates reform and the impact that that will have on small businesses. It is therefore clearly important that we recognise that any changes to productive borrowing must go hand in hand with the responsible management of day-to-day spending and tax changes. A second point, which I made in an earlier debate around the time of the Budget, is that although the Liberal Democrats welcome productive borrowing for investment, we recognise that the Government’s headroom is quite slim. Will the Minister be able to offer a word or two about which measures the Government are taking to ensure that we have a resilient economy that can withstand any external shocks? We live in a very uncertain world. There are rumours of trade wars and tariffs, and God forbid we have another pandemic. It is only by having a resilient economy that we can withstand unpredictable external shocks. There are several elements in the charter that we support, and we do not want to stand in its way, but I express the hope that, from here on in, we may be able to adopt an approach to fiscal rules that is more pragmatic, open and grounded in what is best for our British economy.

15:55:00

I thank right hon. and hon. Members for this afternoon’s debate. I will reflect on some of their questions and comments in winding up the debate. To begin, I can provide assurance to the shadow Chief Secretary, the hon. Member for North Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller). He was concerned that the Labour party had misled the public. There could not be anything further from the truth. In the manifesto, the wording was very clear. We would have two fiscal rules: first, to bring day-to-day spending in line with receipts; and secondly, that debt would fall as a share of the economy. Those are our fiscal rules. Now, he is right that we defined debt at the Budget, but that did not change the fiscal rule. The fiscal rule is that debt should be falling as a share of the economy. That is the fiscal rule. [Interruption.] It is the fiscal rule; there is no debate about it. It is as clear as the letters on a page. As was alluded to in the debate, the Chancellor chose a well-established metric for debt—PSNFL, public sector net financial liabilities—which recognises the fact that a competent Government can invest in the country and get a return for the taxpayer.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury is making a bizarre comment. The point is that the Chancellor stated in 2023 that she would not fiddle the figures. She has now changed the numbers. The definition of debt for public sector net debt excluding the Bank of England is different from her PSNFL. They are different. It enables the Chancellor to borrow more. That is fiddling the figures to achieve an objective. It is not the same, and she did not tell the truth when she said that she would not fiddle the figures.

That is a very strong accusation, which I refute in the strongest terms. The Chancellor was very clear that debt would be falling as a share of the economy. That is the fiscal rule. As predicted by the OBR, we will deliver on that promise. It is right that the Chancellor chose at the Budget to define debt as public sector net financial liabilities. The big question is why. As the Liberal Democrat spokesperson, the hon. Member for St Albans (Daisy Cooper) said, it is because having a Government with stability and competence at their core means that we are borrowing not to pay for out of control day-to-day spending, which I think everyone in the House would agree is an unsustainable path to higher debt burdens, but instead borrowing responsibly within guard rails for investments, predominantly alongside the private sector, to enable, for example, infrastructure delivery across the country or investment in businesses, for example, through the national wealth fund. The reason that the public sector net financial liabilities debt rule is important in that context is because it reflects the fact that, where Government have an equity stake or have provided debt for non-commercial terms, there is a rate of return. The taxpayer receives some of the benefit of that investment and growth in the economy, which I am sure we would all welcome. There is the important difference about the type of debt. Under the last Administration, debt was spiralling out of control because the last Government could not pay their day-to-day bills. Everybody knows, whether they are running their household finances or the country’s finances, that that is not a sustainable thing to do. That has changed under this Government. Debt will be for productive investment only and day-to-day costs will be met by revenues. Yes, that means that public services have to live within their means, and often that means difficult discussions in the spending review that I have to conduct with Secretaries of State, to which the hon. Gentleman alluded. However, all of us around the Cabinet table recognise not only the non-negotiable nature of the fiscal rules, which are the foundation of economic stability, but the prize of the modernisation and reform of our public services. He will have heard the Prime Minister and other Secretaries of State talk about just that fact. There is a huge amount of opportunity to achieve better outcomes for people at lower cost, not just through basic technology but by improving the way we deliver public services. That means delivering services designed around the person and how they wish to interact with the Government. It means that people can receive support from different Departments and different functions, and they can receive the information they need at the time they need it. Let me give one example. In the constituency of my hon. Friend the Member for Filton and Bradley Stoke (Claire Hazelgrove)—just north of my Bristol North West constituency—I visited a community diagnostic centre. The CDC programme began under the last Administration, but we have committed ourselves to it. The provider works in partnership with the NHS trust, charging exactly the same rate as the hospital for a diagnostic scan. The company involved does not make profits in comparison with the hospital costs; it is the same NHS tariff rate. People can have MRI and CT scans, gastroscopies, and other tests. The centre is attached to a branch of Asda and there is plenty of free parking. I asked the owners, “Why are you able to charge the same rates as the hospital in my constituency while running this service more effectively?” They said, “We are open for 14 hours a day from Monday to Saturday and for 12 hours on Sunday, we sweat the assets more than a hospital can, and we have new bits of kit with AI that are more productive to use”—which is why the Health Secretary wants to roll those out across the NHS. They also said that the customer service was the key driver for productivity, because customers could book their appointments and move them if necessary, they could visit the centre after work, and they could go there between shopping trips. Essentially, the service has been designed around the patient. Patients turn up pretty much all the time, and they are never not able to do so. That is just one example of the way we are modernising public services.

The Chief Secretary has given a fantastic example of how improving capital infrastructure in the NHS can improve productivity, but one of the big frustrations in the NHS is the fact that staff cannot be productive because the buildings around them are falling apart. I have seen that in Watford General hospital, where A&E staff cannot be as productive as they might be because they are in a crumbling, cramped hospital. Has the Treasury considered conducting any assessment of the productivity gains that could be produced by the new hospital programme, and by potentially speeding up the delivery of those hospitals?

The Health Secretary is actively working on this. There are huge opportunities, not just in the NHS but in the Department for Work and Pensions where my right hon. and hon. Friends are working, and throughout Government as a whole. Imagine having a jobcentre in your pocket, on your phone, where you can gain access to the support that you need—as opposed to services that are often out of town or not available when you are available, and where there are difficult processes to go through. That is not great for the people who work in those services. They are there to serve the public, but they are not helped to achieve the right outcomes for people. This Government are committed to reform but also to investment, because we can achieve better outcomes for people and reduce the cost of running public services in the long run. We are committed to unlocking investment, whether it is through the PSNFL debt definition for infrastructure and businesses or, as a consequence, freeing up public sector grants for public sector investment. My hon. Friend the Member for Reading Central (Matt Rodda) made a number of excellent points. I am pleased that he is supportive of the commitments made by the Chancellor today to back the Heathrow plans and the enormous opportunity presented by the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor. He gave the great example of his local technology and telecoms cluster and its development around rail infrastructure, including extra capacity on the Elizabeth line. It is a classic and probably obvious example: if rail and other transport infrastructure is built, people will come and invest in lab spaces, offices and homes. That is why the Chancellor made such a strong commitment today to get infrastructure built and enable private sector investment. My hon. Friend also made a good point about the role of universities. Our universities sector is one of our great strengths. We have a number of world-leading universities, as well as the brilliant universities that are teaching and carrying out research in every part of our country. These are often the engines of economic growth in their regions, and also the gateway to opportunity for many people.

The Chief Secretary has referred to the great benefit of infrastructure projects. The Elizabeth line is a very good example of that, but it was way over budget and very late, and the same applies to HS2 and most other big infrastructure projects. What plans do the Government have in that regard? Later we will discuss the welfare cap, an attempt to control welfare spending for the next five years. Does the same cap apply to infrastructure projects?

I thank the right hon. Member for his question, because he invites me to talk the House through our infrastructure strategy. For the first time, we are bringing together Government plans on economic infrastructure, housing and social infrastructure in the same place. It means that when we go through the spending review in the Treasury, working with colleagues across Whitehall, we will be much better than the previous Government at taking place-based decisions. In the past, it was a bilateral discussion between a Department and the Treasury, with no dots being connected between different types of infrastructure. That has led to the failure to capture the growth potential in different places. We will take a different approach and make sure that infrastructure investments relating to public investment are capped by the numbers set out in the Budget. That is the spending envelope that we have, and we have to prioritise those investments, but they will be based on driving growth and opportunity for people in the places in which they live. My hon. Friend the Member for Reading Central made a great point about the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, the role of connecting some of our great universities, and unleashing the opportunity that exists between them. As I said to the House earlier, the living connectivity arrangements between Oxford and Cambridge are basically non-existent. By connecting these two hubs of innovation and investment, the opportunities are endless.

I have to be careful, because I have a significant constituency interest in this issue, but I want to ask a more general question about the role of infrastructure investments and the fiscal rules. East West Rail’s proposal to complete the railway line had a benefit-cost ratio of 0.3 in its last business case: building it would basically lose 70p of every pound of taxpayers’ money. Does the Chief Secretary to the Treasury regard that as a loss? If not, will there be a business case that shows that the project has a benefit-cost ratio that does not lose taxpayers’ money?

That is a great question. All these infrastructure opportunities will go through both value-for-money assessments and growth assessments. The argument that we have been making today is that initiating projects such as the East West Rail line in a co-ordinated way with private capital, universities and our house building plans lifts the growth opportunities that come from those projects. That is why Patrick Vallance has been appointed as the champion of the growth corridor. We will take a whole-corridor view on the investments and the opportunities across different investments, regardless of whether they are public or private, but they will all have to go through value-for-money and growth assessments. The infrastructure strategy will be a 10-year strategy. It will give a long-term view on economic, housing and social infrastructure, but they will be underpinned by longer-term capital budgets. The capital budget that we will set in June will be for four years, until 2029-30, but the normal approach, as set out in the charter, will be that the capital budgets will be for five years. As the House knows, we have committed to doing the next spending review every subsequent two years. In 2027, when we conduct the next spending review, we will have the 10-year infrastructure strategy but also pretty much 10 years of capital budgets being allocated for those projects. That is a hugely important signal to investors. We are working with industry and investors on what the biannual pipeline might look like, so that we can publish in real terms the investable propositions, but also so that businesses know that work is coming if they invest in their supply chain or their workforce. That is a crucial part of unlocking investment in skills and training in our country. Much like we have just seen in the water industry, which has agreed a longer-term investment settlement, suppliers are already telling us that they are now able to invest in staff, training and capabilities, because they know that the flow of investment will be coming over a period of time. We are seeking to do that across a range of infrastructure in order to unlock the investment that this country needs.

I should like to ask my right hon. Friend some further questions on the points he is making. The Elizabeth line demonstrates the case that he is making for the importance of place-based investment and the way in which houses, flats and businesses have been built near stations. There has been a combination of public and private investment in the project, which is arguably part of its success. So I welcome the points he is making about the longevity of the infrastructure investment, the role of the joint investment or co-ordinated investment with the private sector and, above all, the place-based nature of this. The role of Patrick Vallance, in particular, is an important one in that corridor. I would also urge my right hon. Friend again to look at the far ends of the corridor, both at the Oxfordshire and Berkshire end and also possibly towards Norwich and further into East Anglia. I know that a former Minister in the previous Government has been highlighting the potential benefits of investment along rail in East Anglia.

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention. He reminds me that the right hon. Member for Islington North (Jeremy Corbyn) asked me about broader reform to ensure that infrastructure is delivered differently from how it has been in the past, and I would point the House to the action that Ministers have already taken to call in projects that have been gummed up in the system for a long time, which we have allowed to take place, and also to the Planning and Infrastructure Bill that will be presented to the House in due course, which will show the level of ambition this Government have for streamlining planning and consenting processes so that we can get things built. As I have already mentioned, I think today in the House, the fact that we can build a house for someone in 14 to 16 weeks but it seems to take years to get planning approved shows the size of the prize for delivering for people across the country. I will end by thanking the Liberal Democrat spokesperson, the hon. Member for St Albans, for her comments and for reminding the House why this debate matters and why the fiscal rules matter. Because, as we saw under the last Administration, this is not an obscure debate here in the House of Commons, or a kind of Whitehall guidance debate; this is important to people’s lives, because when Governments lose control of the economy nationally, it hits family finances. We all know from talking to our constituents how stressful it was when the Conservative party lost control of the economy and when inflation went through the roof. It had a direct impact on people’s mortgages and on their ability to buy a house. So many people lost their mortgage offers overnight because of the actions of the last Government. It also affected people in the private rented sector when their landlords increased the rent, and because no-fault evictions were allowed under the last Government, many people lost their homes. This fundamental insecurity in people’s lives stems from the actions of politicians here in Government. That is why the fiscal rules are so important and why the Chancellor—and indeed the whole Government—are so iron-clad in their commitment to them. That is why the fiscal rules are non-negotiable. [Interruption.] Shadow Ministers on the Conservative Benches laugh, but I would encourage them to meet some of our constituents and to explain why their actions led to such hardship for them. I have not even started to talk about the cost of energy bills or the food inflation that we are still struggling with today, directly as a consequence of the mismanagement of the economy under the last Administration. The sooner the Conservatives—should they wish to receive advice from me—apologise for the consequences of their actions, the sooner the public might start to listen to them again. But while they are listening to this Labour Government, I can reassure hon. and right hon. Members in the House today that the fiscal rules are non-negotiable. They are the bedrock of economic stability. They enable us to invest in our public services in a sustainable way, to secure growth in the economy and, ultimately, as set out in the Prime Minister’s plan for change, to deliver for working people so that they will know in the years ahead that life is better under a Labour Government than it is under a Conservative Government. Question put and agreed to. Resolved, That the Charter for Budget Responsibility: Autumn 2024, which was laid before this House on 22 January, be approved.