As we heard from the Minister, clause 78 amends the Finance Act 2017 to uprate the soft drinks industry levy, to reflect the change in the CPI from April 2018 to April 2024. The uprating represents an increase of 27%. We support the soft drinks industry levy, but we have strong concerns about the backdating of the tax rate.
As we all know, the consumption of too many high-sugar drinks can lead to weight gain and the risk of medical conditions. It also leads to tooth decay, which is a particular concern for younger people. As the Minister pointed out, this levy was introduced by a Conservative Government with cross-party support to tackle those issues, and it has been a successful, highly effective policy, delivering against the stated objective of encouraging reformulation. The British Soft Drinks Association has said that the levy
“has achieved its intended goal of promoting significant sugar reduction and 89% of soft drinks are now non-SDIL liable. Reformulation has clearly not lost pace with the volume of soft drinks with less than 5g sugar per 100ml increasing by 17.5%> between April 2023 and March 2024.”
Our main concern is about the unprecedented backdating of this tax increase. New clause 9 would require a review of its impact. The decision to backdate inflation over an extended period, creating a 27% retrospective increase, appears to have no parallel in recent tax policy. The backdating is a fundamental departure from the predictability that should be at the heart of tax policy.
Given that the levy has been so effective, why do the Government see a need for such a large increase? As the British Soft Drinks Association points out, it appears that their rationale is primarily focused on revenue raising, rather than public health outcomes. The introduction of such retrospective elements requires close examination of both precedent and consequences, as demonstrated by examples of duty freezes and restarts in recent years.
Comparative excise goods such as alcohol, fuel and tobacco are reviewed annually. Where rates have been frozen across several years, they have not subsequently been subject to those missing years’ inflation rates being applied in this way. Figures from the House of Commons Library calculate what impact a similar backdated increase would have on fuel duty. Following the approach used for the soft drinks levy, if inflation since 2011 was added to fuel duty, using the RPI measure, the duty on a litre of petrol or diesel would increase from 57.95p per litre to 95.18p per litre—a rise of 64%. I am not sure about the Minister’s constituents, but I am pretty sure that mine would be very alarmed at the potential for such a backdated increase to be applied.
Are the Government establishing such backdated increases as a new norm within their tax policies? Companies making long-term investment choices need certainty—the Exchequer Secretary has used that word many times in Committee—to be able to plan and invest in the country. Can the Minister give us an assurance that the Government will not pull off similar tax raids in other sectors, particularly with regard to fuel duty?
We have also heard concerns about the impact assessment, which had limited engagement. The measure is expected to generate £95 million in revenue by 2029-30, yet the assessment does not model how established price elasticity in soft drinks will affect those projections. The assessment acknowledges that both reformulation and reduction in demand will occur, but provides no quantification of the effects. I would be interested to hear the Minister’s comments on that point.
The assessment also does not examine how changes to tax policy without consultation could affect future investment decisions, nor does it explore the market distortions of applying different principles to soft drinks as opposed to other categories of drinks. Will the Minister confirm that these issues have been considered? If they have not, will they be?