Artificial Intelligence: Emissions

Question

15:34:00

Asked by

To ask His Majesty’s Government what plans they have to measure the emissions associated with artificial intelligence in relation to the United Kingdom’s net zero target.

I thank the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Oxford for the Question. The Climate Change Act, as noble Lords know, made the UK the first country to introduce legally binding long-term emissions reductions targets. This sets in law our commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and means that the Government must address emissions across the whole economy to reach our targets. This includes consideration of increased electricity demand from new and growing sectors, including AI, to ensure that we are compliant with our carbon budgets.

My Lords, I thank the Minister for his Answer. He will be aware—I was not, until I researched this—that, in Ireland, data centres now account for over 20% of electricity use and the largest data centres under construction consume as much energy potentially as 2 million households, according to some estimates. Does the Minister agree that there is a need for more joined-up thinking between the Government’s energy policy and the rising energy demands of AI and data centres? As a first step, are the Government ready to accept the recommendations of the Royal Academy of Engineering for mandatory reporting for data centres on energy consumption, water consumption, carbon emissions and e-waste recycling?

Recent estimates from 2022 show that data centres, including those for AI, account for about 4% of UK electricity consumption. The recently formed AI Energy Council, which is co-chaired by the Secretaries of State for DSIT and DESNZ, is set up to do exactly what the right reverend Prelate is suggesting, which is to ensure that we have a joined-up approach between energy and AI.

My Lords, do His Majesty’s Government have a view on the merits of the Xlinks power project, which is designed to bring renewable energy from Morocco to the south-west peninsula via cables? Were it to be successful, this would provide a good renewable source of energy for data centres in the south-west.

Not being from DESNZ, I will ask somebody from that department to give the noble Earl a specific answer on that project, but we will look for where there are sources of energy as we think about where to place data centres. The recent call for expressions of interest in AI growth zones has had more than 200 expressions of interest. They will be considered on the basis of where the energy is available, or could be available, and how we can ensure that we get a clean energy supply to data centres.

My Lords, will the Minister consider leading a review into the PUE measure for data centres? The power usage effectiveness measure has been around for some time now. Does he consider it to be effective and the optimal way of measuring the impact of data centres from an energy perspective?

I thank the noble Lord for that important question, on which I have had discussions with him before. I think it is an important way of measuring it, but the new AI Energy Council is looking at all forms of link between energy and AI. It is worth also noting that the advances in technology mean that the energy consumption is dropping for many of the approaches to new compute and data centres. In fact, some of the chips being designed now may reduce the energy consumption between hundredfold and thousandfold. There is a need to keep an eye on this and to think about what the appropriate way is to measure both the energy consumption and, as the noble Lord rightly says, the broader environmental impact, including water usage.

My Lords, generative AI is exceptionally energy hungry. The head of the National Grid said in March last year that data-centre electricity demand in the UK will rise sixfold in the next 10 years. While the Climate Change Committee has some headroom in its carbon budgets, what work are the Government doing with it to ensure adequate and accurate calculations can be made of AI’s future energy requirements?

The current estimate for 2024 was something like 7 terawatt hours of consumption; if we go forward to 2050, that is expected to be something like 62 terawatt hours, but, as I have just mentioned, the advances in technology may change that. There is a lot of uncertainty around the requirements. It is worth noting that, over the same time period, the increase in energy consumption from many other areas, including from electric vehicles, means that the proportion taken up by data centres, even if there is no technology improvement, is probably something like 10% of the total.

My Lords, the House will note my directorship of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. For the diminishing number of people who still believe that diminishing Britain’s 0.8% of global CO₂ still further is an undertaking worth having, I bring good news: the amount of CO₂ to be released from UK data centres will be close to zero because, with energy prices in the UK some three times higher than in the US, double the price of much of mainland Europe, notably Switzerland, where this is a developing industry, I very much doubt we will have any—or we will have very few—energy-hungry AI centres. Could the Minister give some assurance that we will not simply be reliant on expensive unreliables into the future, and pursue a sensible energy policy for the UK?

The question of renewable energy is of course an important one. Last year, 50% of the energy was provided by renewables, about 30% from gas and the rest from nuclear and other sources, and, as I said, the consumption of energy by AI and data centres will not rise to about more than about 10% of that under current projections. It is the case that many places across the UK have expressed an interest in becoming an AI growth zone. It is also the case that many data centre providers are interested in coming to the UK, so there is a good chance of getting a large number of data centres here in the UK.

My Lords, is the Minister aware that, contrary to the previous question, AI itself is concerned about the amount of electricity it is using and that, if questioned, it has a long list of possible solutions to try to find a way through and to reduce the amount of electricity that it is using? Is it not a fact that, if we spend a little bit more time getting a little closer to the Chinese, we might find ways in which we can save even more electricity in this area?

I think it is the case that AI is going to be very important in reducing energy consumption across a number of industries. Estimates suggest that, even factoring in the increased amount of energy consumed by data centres and AI, the reductions in use as a result of applying AI to a number of industries and elsewhere could outweigh that increase. So this is a complex picture, where AI itself will be part of the solution.

My Lords, I thank the right reverend Prelate for bringing this up. As he has pointed out, and as has been mentioned in two or three questions already, these AI data centres are extraordinarily energy hungry. We think that, on a site with a perimeter similar to that of a call centre, a data centre could use 25 times more energy. So the Minister must explain how he thinks the UK can fully capitalise on this 21st-century opportunity with the most expensive energy. In fact, to pick up my noble friend’s point, our industrial electricity is actually five times more expensive than in the US and seven times more than in China. Could the Minister please work out whether this is just an academic question? We are unlikely to see many AI data centres with the level of energy prices that we have at the moment.

The ability to become self-sufficient in energy is of course dependent on renewable energy, the price of which has come down dramatically since it was first introduced. Making sure that the UK is protected from the volatility of supply of energy from elsewhere is an important part of what this Government are doing. The energy supply from renewables will increase as we get towards a carbon-neutral position, which will also increase growth in terms of the technologies invented, developed and implemented in this country.

My Lords, could my noble friend the Minister ensure that discussions take place as quickly as possible to ensure that, as well as a solution regarding data centres, there is a solution or a resolution in respect of the UK-EU emissions trading scheme, which is due to expire shortly?

I thank my noble friend for that question. Discussions are ongoing on all these matters, and I am happy to get a detailed response to her.

My Lords, I draw the attention of the House to my interest in the register. Does the Minister agree that many of the concerns expressed on all the Benches on this issue, particularly in the Question of the right reverend Prelate, can be answered by the speedy rollout of small modular nuclear reactors, which will provide the energy that this country badly needs?

The noble Lord may know that I am on record agreeing with the importance of small modular reactors, and that is being looked at carefully.