My Lords, I rise to speak to my manuscript Amendment 15A and its consequential Amendments 17 and 24, both of which are supported by the noble Baronesses, Lady Neville-Rolfe and Lady Kramer. I am very grateful for their support. I will also speak to consequential Amendments 30A, 31A and 32A in my name. For clarity’s sake, I will not be pressing Amendments 30, 31 or 32.
In short, these exemption amendments seek to protect all small businesses and organisations that employ fewer than 25 staff, including charities, from Clause 2’s steep and sudden drop in the NICs threshold from £9,100 to £5,000 per annum—or, on a monthly basis, from £758 to £417 and, for those who are paid weekly, from £175 to £96 per week. By maintaining these existing thresholds, these amendments would particularly protect part-time workers and smaller organisations including charities, hospitality and retail, which in some cases face increases in their NICs bill per employee as high as 50% to 70%. For this reason, I support the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, with her Amendment 2.
I should quickly declare my interests as set out in the register, specifically as an adviser and investor to a range of small businesses in the UK, including a community-owned public house.
I will come on to the impact of these amendments shortly, particularly in relation to the challenging and interesting comments from the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell. I certainly do not agree that my amendments are designed to reduce government revenue, and I will come on to that in a moment. Surely, this is our role. This is the most important economic policy that this Government have yet to produce. We are where we are, and surely we should be scrutinising, particularly if we feel that poor decisions or poor structuring of these national insurance increases are doing damage to the economy.
On that theme, I will quickly share this: the latest survey from the Federation of Small Businesses reported that the proportion of its members facing contraction in the last quarter, Q4, jumped to 24%, its highest-ever level outside the pandemic. That is up from 14% in Q3. The FSB has also reported that confidence among its membership has fallen to its lowest point in 10 years. Meanwhile, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development has reported that over a third of the 2,000 firms that it interviewed plan to reduce their headcount in 2025 through redundancies or recruiting fewer workers. Rather than taking a sectoral approach, for which many others have spoken passionately already, my exemption amendment applies to all small businesses and organisations, including charities with fewer than 25 staff, which, as the Bill stands, face sudden and steep drops—in fact, 45% drops—in their per-employee threshold at which employers become liable to pay NICs.
Just to illustrate this, employee NICs on a salary of £30,000 are set to increase by 30%, from £2,884 to £3,750, for those employing more than three staff. For part-time workers earning, say, £15,000, the employer NICs can increase by more than 50% per job. These are not trivial increases. While I salute the Government for increasing the employment allowance in Clause 3, it is from £5,000 to £10,500, and this typically washes out increases only for micro-businesses, those employing fewer than three staff. All told, the larger the business in terms of employees and the higher the salaries paid, the lower the increase in percentage terms to its NICs.
Of course, I understand why the Government are raising tax revenues—I have no issue with that—but, by placing this burden so disproportionately on small employers, the Bill threatens to do significant damage to jobs, pay and economic growth. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this is already happening.
My amendments would help to protect the jobs of some 6 million workers employed by about 1 million businesses and organisations across the UK. Many of these are nascent companies that operate on low margins and are at critical stages of their development—yet they grow at the fastest rate, create jobs at the fastest rate and, through their size and agility, can be great innovators. They are a vital component of GDP and our growth, with annual turnover of some £900 billion. But this group also includes a huge swathe of family and local businesses spread across the country, struggling to keep their heads above water in what have been five very difficult trading years. A fall of just 2% to 3% in employment levels or hours worked in this small business sector could cost the Treasury more in lost tax revenues and increased benefit payments than it would gain from this measure.
Incentivising employment by restoring the NICs threshold would be accretive to GDP growth, the Government’s number one priority. It would help boost income tax revenues and employees’ NICs, and it would bolster VAT revenues and corporation tax. Above all, it would lift business sentiment and stimulate investment.
I listened with interest to the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, describing all these amendments as wrecking amendments. Because we do not have a proper detailed impact assessment, that is an unfair charge and I challenge it on behalf of these amendments. I look forward to hearing from the Minister but, with respect, I expect to press these amendments when the time comes.